Mobile Futures

It's been a while since I have blogged but hopefully over the next few days I'll start to establish a better routine.

Expect 2018 to see a number of Mobile Networks doing proof of concept trials of 5G, we are seeing the first in Europe with DT is already doing so, more will follow. Physical Devices will start to become available in the last quarter of the year once chipsets move into preproduction phase.

The focus for IoT should move away from Consumer fantasy solutions to more of a focus on Enterprise offerings because significant elements of integration will be required if the sector is to be more than just basic plug and play applications. IoT needs to evolve into a major market because a significant amount of planning around its demand for capacity has been used to justify the need for 5G at a time when 4G has yet to be completely deployed. Without being able to show new markets Mobile Networks are not likely to be able to raise the finances needed to build 5G out.

I expect to see more criticism of the negative effects of Smartphones on our everyday lives as people start to realise that the App ecosystems rather than helping is hurting. I left Facebook over a year ago, when I upgraded my phone in Summer 2016 I removed the Facebook App that was preinstalled. I do not have notifications enabled on by phone for anything other than email, and then it is only my work account. It is not mobile phones that are doing the damage it is what you allow on them and how you then live with that software. But just as it is usual the child of someone who works in technology who is last to get a phone at school it is those in the sector who are least likely to use excessively the technology.                                         

Running a Telecoms Network is about a lot more than just deal making you just have to look at the problems of those who jumped on the M&A bus and crashed into a pile of debt as the consolidation boom they embarked on failed to deliver the riches from scaling up. As you layer generation upon generation of technology the issue becomes more complex not just in terms of Infrastructure but also Customer expectations and demand. Before the iPhone we saw a broad spectrum of handset designs enable by the fact that manufacturing processes were controlled by Equipment makers rather than outsourced. Today Smartphones are all the say form factor and operate one of two software systems this means that the generation that has known nothing but smartphones has a set of expectation and behaviours vastly different from those whom started out with phones that were primarily phones.

So how might things be made better? Can it be done without the need to Regulate and litigate? Are Investors happy to allocate capital at a rate that allows development? I will try and post a few thoughts on how to go forward without breaking confidentiality clauses signed with clients of the next few weeks. 

It's not about the technology....

A friend on Twitter pointed me at this article on how Blackberry could have avoided becoming a footnote in business study classes looking at the Kodak Moment.

I am surprised that someone who works for an Advertising Agency fails to point to the obvious factors in Apples success.  When none of the others were directly advertising to the consumer on TV, Apple were.  When few were advertising handsets in the Press Apple did. Others at that time had stopped advertising above the line because they were selling products via Partners those partners were the Mobile Operators who used the coop funds to pay for in store and brochures which lets face it looks old and out of date compared to Apple.

NOTHING on a iPhone was new to the mobile industry what was fresh was the promotion and development of the aspirational quality of the handset.  It has been helped by the "exclusivity" model used by Apple to "limit" mass market appeal. This fashion label allowed Apple for a time to lead the Smartphone market but was quickly overtaken in terms of volume by Samsung who used it's Far East cooperation ethos to appeal to those that where anti-Apple to grab the market.

The big question is will my Grandchildren read that Apple was just another Levis Strauss in that it helped establish a sector, almost died, had a return to fashion and then a slow but inevitable decline?

Why Apple is bad for the Mobile Industry

If you read this blog or follow me on Twitter then you will know that I am no fan of Apple.

I do not buy into the myth that they are interested in what the consumer wants but rather feel that they are very good at marketing compared to their peers.

The current focus on lets make everything a slim as possible is not a benefit but rather an obsession in controlling component manufacturers and in doing so setting prices. Why is Apple's management of the supply chain OK and Tesco's controlling of farmers wrong when they are both the same thing?

Recently I have been using my old Ericsson T68i and the ergonomics of the phone makes it a joy to hold and use. More importantly put the handset down on a surface and the rubber back means that it does not slide around. OK I am use the T68i as a PHONE and so was interested in calling and SMS rather than web based apps but then I was working rather than looking to fill dead time.

Because of Apple's lead as the trend setter other makers of Smartphones are all attempting to make handsets that look and function in the same way as an iPhone. I had hoped that design at Nokia had not been sacrificed on the "burning deck" of re-engineering the Firm undertaken by Steve Elop but unfortunately they seemed to have lost all their corporate intelligence. Nokia Engineering had grown too big but at one time they had people who were concerned by the response a user got when pushing a button and attempted to make the experience better.

What concern does Apple have for the user? I fear that it is more akin to IKEA than Georg Jensen. After a while as consumers learn more about how to use products that they own they understand the failings of low cost mass design and production and are willing to pay more for a better experience. Yet what improvement do we see with the iPhone in terms of industrial design?

If Jonathan Ive is a Design Hero then he needs to demonstrate such by following the actions of Dieter Rams rather than just mouthing kind words about his ability. Rams with Vitsoe and Braun was capable of designing products that function on a higher level than Apple has ever done. If you want to learn more then get yourself a copy of As Little Design As Possible.

Others are starting to realise that Apple's business practices are bad for the sector as a whole they do not seem to be in the UK or US but rather Germany and France where the company has a smaller impact as a whole. I have long been a advocate of the fact that most people do not seek to converge to a single device but rather are happy to carry a number of them. Sit on public transport and you can watch people switching between phone, MP3, e-reader, tablet rather than using a single device. Apple has benefitted from this divergence getting people to buy iPhone, iPod, iPad yet when it comes to the phone they offer one single device in terms of form factor.

If I want to create something then a touch screen device does not make it easy. Yes I know David Hockney makes art on his iPad but he also uses a Hasselblad and very large canvases and paint for his large public works. A keyboard with good design allows faster typing than I can do on an iPad even if that is a simple one such as on my T68i let alone a QWERTY design.

Then how about Apple giving a screen that is better in bright light that is also capable of falling three feet without breaking? My observation of others on Public Transport usually allows me to spot two or three broken iPhone screens. I do not see any broken Sony Ericsson, Samsung, HTC, Blackberry or Nokia screens.

If an iPhone is about wonderful User Interface design the can't I expect more of a physical interface than a single button?

Thinking about Mobile Handsets

Over the last few weeks I have been looking at upgrading the handsets of my three daughters and so have reviewed what is on the market and what they wish to do with there phones.

This will be the fourth handset that my Twins have owned. At the moment they are happy users of a Blackberry Bold which are starting to show signs of age. They are not heavy users of either text or voice but they use BBM and Facebook with a little email. They are thus happy with the QWERTY form factor and when asked if they wanted a Blackberry Touch they declined as the find the lack of keyboard slows them down. They are looking for something that is robust enough to live with the knocks of life in a teenage girl’s pocket and bag that means it has to bounce before it breaks.

The youngest wants her second mobile phone to have a few more features that the basic candy bar she currently has. She does not want an iPhone as “the girls who have one at school are bullies and they all seem to be broken within a few weeks.” I have been looking at a number of Android handsets but she seems to like the Nokia Lumina 800 I have been playing with because it does not look girlie, has a good camera and the battery lasts.

When you look at the shelves in a phone retailer at the moment if you take the Blackberries away what you see is a Smartphone format that is almost uniform. It reminds me of the mid 1990s just as the industry was about to under go massive expansion and all you could have was a black brick, then Nokia launched the 5110i with snap on covers and Motorola and Samsung decided that we might like silver clamshells.

Perhaps we can pause for breath on the development of Operating systems and start to look at form factors? For a number of years I have thought that mobile users are unlikely to carry just one mobile phone when they are able to purchase devices and looking at fellow travellers on the train it does now seem that time has come. Not everyone wishes to carry a device with a 3½ to 4½ inch screen as a phone, so why not have some devices that don’t have a touch screen but rather a simple keyboard?

The interesting thing is that none of the three seem to be demanding a wide range of Apps with which to “personalize” their handset. The number of people they “chat” with on Facebook is a subset of their “Friends” with whom they are social both in the real and virtual world. They do want a device that gives access to YouTube. A VPN which would give access to catch up TV from both the UK and US would be very welcomed. But if that was not available no problem as they can do so via Laptop or Tablet.

When it comes to an upgrade of my handset, something that I can quickly synchronise with my car, laptop and headset would make life easy. As I tend to use my phone whilst driving something with very good voice command would be welcomed. I would love to get rid of the touch screen as too often I put my current phone in my pocket after use and the discover that because it was still active I have played audio books, surfed the web and changed the keyboard, theme etc. . Over the last 14 months my favorite handset has been my Vertu Ascent because it does what I want it to do and when I need something I just use the Concierge service.

Will 2011 be the year that we see that the iPhone had no clothes?

I have spent most of this year questioning just how smart a phone is an iPhone. In my opinion it is neither smart or a phone. Its success can be put down to the fact that Apple have managed to create a massive buzz around it. A mixture of celebrity endorsement alongside massive advertising campaigns has made the device wanted by the public but does that make it a good phone?

To my mind the problem with the iPhone is that the App Store has failed to maintain innovation and the refresh of a new OS which saw Steve Jobs push facetime ™ as the new way to communicate show that Apple has grown tired. The Company seems to be pushing development in the area of the App Store with the focus on the iPad and Apple TV rather than making significant progress with phones. If I were a shareholder of Apple stock I would be asking when can we expect to see a similar diversity in form factor for phones as we see in iPods? What is the company doing to improve the quality of phone calls?

I accept that in some markets the iPhone has been very successful. However the same was true of Motorola with a number of handsets and look at them now. I am sure that for some the fact that you see so many with an iPhone has taken the luster off the product. A number of those I know who are currently using an iPhone 4 acknowledge that they have two-three old iPhones at home having upgraded as each new machine is released. Yes I know that the same can be said for Blackberry Users or Nokia fans but the buzz around them is not as loud.

Ask Motorola about how fast the consumer can turn and you will be told that the abandonment can be faster than the celebrity status of a contestant in Big Brother. I think that Apple will play a significant part in the mobile device market for quite some time. I do not think that the product will be a phone however. As consumers we tend not to converge on a single device but rather diverge. As consumers become more knowledgeable about costs and experiences they also demand more. The novelty of the App has long past for most of us and so we are looking at the utility of our devices.

The combination of living in the Cloud and the iPad means that I can now work without my MacBook Pro for most client engagements. Thus I carry a device that allows a better user experience than an iPhone when it comes to watching video, reading books/papers or casual web surfing. As I become someone who carries multiple mobile devices rather than have a mobile subscription for each I have bought a mifi dongle for those times when wifi is not available free of charge (my ISP gives me free access to hotspots as part of my service.)

So will Apple surprise us with an iPhone Nano; will we see HD Voice available on the iPhone 5 or will the iPhone become a museum exhibit? I think that Apple are focused on the revenue streams from the iTunes store and thus we may never see an iPhone7 as the exit the phone business.

So where in the centre of the mobile universe?

Spent an enjoyable couple of hours today putting the world to rights with some guys I respect in the mobile ecosystem. After joking about now nothing can work unless it's invented by Steve Jobs and comes via an App we turned to trends developing now. Both said that they are considering relocating to San Francisco as at this moment it seems to be the centre of influence as to where Mobile is going. They say that at this moment it is where the money and brains are.

But wait is that true?

I fear that they may be drinking the wrong type of Kool-aid. Whilst at this moment in time everyone feels that the mobile industry rotates around planets Apple and Google these are bubbles similar to the property and internet hype. The risk is that the centring of focus in the Valley will limit the view of demand.

When it comes to adoption has the rise of the App been as successful as SMS, Voice Mail or Ring Back? Will history judge the iPhone and Android as nothing more than a ringtone?

If I were to start a new venture then my investment would be in machine-to-machine and/or mobile healthcare. Given that I would want to develop relationships that enable me to build and exit a business is the Valley the best hub? Should I chose to relocate could I cope with Americans claiming that they rule the mobile industry when they have no understanding of the global standards, have yet to come to terms with the pre paid market because of the idiosyncratic payment system in the US of receiver pays and coverage of mobile networks is patchwork?

But where would I set up?

Europe is fragmented with many small sites offering expertise when it comes to hardware/software/services but does not have the access to finance needed to develop start-ups.

India has lots of Engineers but does not seem to have the ethnographers needed to offer a usable interface. It would be like returning to a Motorola Razr, wonderful to look at but a disappointment to use on a daily basis.

Japan offers money, wonderful networks and engineers looking to develop things people will use. However very few make call on a phone and so what we see is pocket computers as we head towards the cloud.

Where would you set up to have the best chance of success?

Sorry I have been quite

It has been some time since I have posted anything.

The reason is that I have become more and more frustrated with the fixation that the answer is the iPhone for all things that are wrong with the mobile phone market. Just as Motorola got it wrong with placing all its eggs in one basket trusting everything to Apple is flawed.

Those that ask, what about Android? Have to understand that Google is just another walled garden and it to is flawed for other reasons.

The fact that both of these handset developers see the future as about the power of the App store highlights the failure to understand the ecosystem that is the Mobile Phone Industry. Observe the clamour of Vodafone Shareholders looking for the fire sale of minority equity assets to see the bonfire of the vanities.

Google does not seem to understand the timeframes the Industry operates under.

Apple sees life in a binary format of winners and loser which risks seeing the foundations crumble under them. As a futurologist I read the tea leaves for Apple as potentially pulling out of the phone market. Recent developments with the iPad, iPod and Apple TV could all point to no iPhone6. If the App store was the answer look for the BBC News app on the OVI and ANDROID stores it will not be the same one developed by Fjord for the iPad.

Nokia have replaced the CEO as he was unable to develop a handset that would kill the iPhone. As Apple is a very small rival and the real fight is with Blackberry his focus was on the right place. Yes fire him because he did not stop the rise of RIM but not for the lack of a high end handset that fails to complement the ecosystem.

If you fail to understand the need to support the ecosystem what you face is failure of the infrastructure. If Vodafone cannot see a return on the investment for new base stations why are they going to build them?

Once Mobile Networks employed anthropologists and sociologists to understand customer needs and develop products. Now they live on Internet Time which works on open development with Darwinian evolution. Evolution is difficult when the search methodology is a top ten list rather than accurate indexation with a standard taxonomy.

This post is me letting off steam. I might come back and develop some of the observations above or I might lie in a dark room and listen to whale music.

Confussion over the Handset market

I know that we are in a quite period as the holiday season starts to end with one last public holiday before the children return to school but if you take both the Observer and The Sunday Times you might be a little confused as to the progress of Android.

The Observer reports that the iPhone faces a threat, whilst the Times tells us that Google is failing in the smartphone market.

This week I have been talking to a number of clients about the OS battle that is taking place in the mobile phones space. In preparation for a workshop on Smartphones OS I decided that I would put aside my opinion formed by being a user for the last twenty plus years and get one of everything and use them for a few weeks. So I have started carrying a small gadget bag with something others than Nikons in. As well as the Nokia E71 I have a G1, Apple 3G, Blackberry Storm and I still carry my Sony Ericsson C905i.

I do not think that the mobile industry is in a battle for one single OS but rather the current EIGHT competing OS will be consolidated down to just three.

Talking with others who use Smartphones has been interesting. One current iPhone users told me that he was going to pass on an upgrade of his iPhone to the 3GS but rather he was moving to an Android handset and upgrading to Paid Google Apps so that he could work on the Cloud. Another told me that he keeps being surprised by RIM and has noticed how many women are using one to surf and network with rather than an iPhone. The Nokia users cannot see why they should jump ship and are hopeful that the divergence into Linux and Windows devices are little more than a distraction.

I have noticed that my iPhone seems to prefer WiFi to the poor O2 network when ever I want to use facebook, twitter, Yahoo, Shozu. The experience is no different from my iPod Touch and thus if I have an iPod why do I need the Phone element because I'm not using the phone network and payment is taken via my iTunes account. I am now using pictures in Twitter but is that worth the expense?

I seem to be having problems with the Android App Store and Installing software like Opera. The mail client seems good but the browser needs work. For me the mixture of touch and QWERTY keyboard is a pain. Might be a better experience on Vodafone than it is on T-Mobile but I am underwhelmed at present.

The Storm is an interesting experience. The device has attracted a lot of attention from my teenage twins who would both love to find in their bag for the new school year. The messaging is excellent especially BB to BB user and Facebook and Twitter are as good as on the iPhone.

I am starting to get the hang of the E71 and Ovi alongside Google Apps does make it a productive device. The battery life is far better than that of the other smartphones however I still find that I need to switch to Opera to work as quickly as I can with either my PC or MacBook. In switching to Opera a number of sites ask we to "use the browser installed by the phone manufacturer" what is this 1999 all over again?

When I am off out for a walk with my camera what do I put in my pocket? It is still the C905i it has a better camera and the battery does not die on me. Should I need it I have GPS and Opera takes care of the browsing.

From conversations and observation I feel that RIM and Linux will be two of the three that are left standing the other one is any ones guess. Mr Jobs has been at the phone thing for two years now and he still has not hit the target he set himself for sales outside of the US. If he were to launch the tablet / iPod Touch MAX and it was a success would he kill the iPhone? Most people I observe when I travel seem to have two mobile phones and they carry these in a bag rather than in a pocket and so a larger form factor will not be an issue providing that it is A5 in size rather than A4.

What ever handset OS wins the distribution model will have to change. Two year contracts will see handsets looking like they have been cared for by Vandals if my Twins handsets are anything to go by. One friend has changed his iPhone five times in the last year as it was starting to look used and the Apple Store guys let him. What is need is more Handset Vendor stores so that some may buy a handset and then buy connectivity separately. After all we know that the guy in Carphone Warehouse is not going to give us the best deal.

All that is wrong with the US view of mobile

Have read Scoble's post on the problem with Europe's mobile scene and raised my blood pressure to a level that has caused me to post.

Here in Europe we have a number of advantages over the Americans. First we have Networks that they can only dream of in terms of coverage and speed so should the user wish to they can adopt mobile data services. We have thus decided that using a laptop with mobile broadband is a better way to surf than a smartphone.

In terms of innovation we have leadership in LTE, Handsets and Network Ownership. We are looking at how voice can be improved.

Whilst the US feels that it invented the Mobile and now once again owns the space it is not about just one device. Last year more people bought a single Nokia handset than all the smartphones sold in the world. Mobile payments in the form of micropayments for content and services in Europe is far more than Apple has made from the Ap Store.

Looking at the history of mobile data services it is far from certain that the Ap Store is going to become a cornerstone of all things mobile. One thing that Europe is better than the US at is regulation and the exclusive nature of the iPhone is something that the EU will regulate against; just ask Microsoft and Intel if you are unsure. Without regulation what is to say that the Ap Store is another AvantGo? At the hight of the dot.com bubble everyone thought that the web clipping service was the future and now it is little used.

Before we had smartphones we had PDA and everyone was using either an iPaq or Palm a few geeks preferred PSION devices, all these used bluetooth to connect to a mobile and use it as a modem. Now these devices are museum pieces.

In four years time will Apple still be in the mobile phone market or would it have moved on? At this moment in time we have seen three devices in 2 years ALL of which have the same form factor. As a historian of mobile it looks all too much like Motorola with the StarTAC and Razr rather than RIM who have transitioned from a single device to multiple form factors or Nokia with ranges that have global appeal.

We have to remember that the primary function of mobile is a phone rather than internet device. A number of networks are looking at new generation Voice services which will stop downward pricing of the product unlike the fixed world. For the last four years mobile has carried more voice than fixed and for the last eight it has generated more revenues. Having lost out on the fixed revenue stream the Networks are not going to do the same again if they are to continue investment in 4G.

Lets just remember that mobile is just that and all to often we find users of smartphones static. How many times have you bumped into someone walking off a plane as they adopt the Blackberry Prayer to read their phone and though is it that important?

1 Billion Apps, can someone help Apple with it's counting....

OK so in 9 months customers of Apple have downloaded 1 Billion Applications for the iPhone AND iPod Touch.

I look upon this not as a demonstration of the market for mobile data services but rather the demand for personalisation. As before with people buying ringtones and wallpaper owners of mass market consumer electronics wish to make them unique.

I am not an iPhone user but I am someone with a Touch. I have 20 applications that I use on my iPod and have removed 6 that didn't work. The average for each of my applications is 4 updates since I have installed them. Does Apple count these as 26 Apps or 90 something?

I understand that Game Theory is deployed by the Vendor of an App to keep it in the charts thus I expect that we are looking at Double Counting.

As a Touch user I can only connect via WiFi but as someone who works in an environment that such services is ubiquitous connectivity other than when in Transit is good. How many iPhone users are also doing so over WiFi rather than 2G/3G mobile? Thus the next time that someone tells me that Mobile Data is mainstream can they at first demonstrate that what they are doing is possible on a handset that is not Smart?

The next few months will be interesting in that the economic downturn means that the old subsidy model is over and so will smartphone numbers grow if the consumer has to pay up front for the handset? Without a Smartphone what of the market for Apps?

When I can get Opera on my Touch I will consider that Apple is Open and Mobile Data is more than niche.

Innovation in Mobile .....

...if the things outlined in the Independent today are the best that the mobile industry can come up with can you stop the Bus I want to get off!

Whilst I agree that the Mobile is becoming more and more a Remote for life I would hope that the Executives within the Networks at this time are focusing on the Quality of the Service rather than the Technology and User Interface. In talking to the Normal User one of the biggest demands they have with the new handsets is that the battery lasts just like it did the that Black & White Nokia that we only charged on a Sunday. Once they realise that using data services resulted in no phone after lunch they stop using data!

Talking to those who are excellent in segmentation and targeted marketing speak about just how bad the Networks are at Communicating. For Example, If I have been a contract customers with your network for 8 years and every time I have upgraded my handset I have selected a Nokia what makes you thing that you can sell me a Samsung? Tesco's know that if I am a Pepsi drinker I will not switch to Coke so they incentivise me to buy expensive cans rather than cheap bottles. When then don't the Networks use some of the data locked in the billing system about me to try and increase my user behaviour rather than get me to try something new?

Most people feel that the Customer Service Experience when it comes to a Mobile Network is something a kin to an Estate Agent or Dentist rather than Rolls Royce. Orange last year told those in the UK that it understood their pain and would move call centres back to the UK. As an Orange consumer I see no improvement to my care, since they have become French I no longer get calls to ask what can be done to improve my experience or reduce my bill.

As a consumer I have FIVE UK sims for my personal use and we have three others in the house that Orange know about as they are topped up from my Contract. Orange know about on half of the Sims I own, they have not attempted to cross sell Broadband (Fixed or Mobile). Thus I have to question what value they place on me as a customer?

The reason that I do not use a Single Network is because the Coverage I have at present is erratic at best. It is not a question of budget to build in the case of the Provider but rather planning permission to build new cell sites. Having been involved in Fixed Mobile Convergence I know that using GSM & WiFi = Reduced Battery Life so I want a system that is GSM. I also know that the audio quality of the GSM network could be enhanced and for someone who is a heavy voice user that is an innovation that would increase useage.

If you are interested in a Universal Remote Control rather than download apps from the iStore onto you iPhone switch to a RIM and sign up for Unify4life.

A New Dawn or the beginning of The End for Nokia?

This week we have seen the presentation of results for Nokia and Apple which in headline terms present a change in the fortunes of the leader and a significant challenge at the high end of the market.

In his presentation  Ollli-Pekka Kallasvuo Chief Executive of Nokia said  “In recent weeks the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated rapidly, with even weaker consumer confidence, unprecedented currency volatility and credit tightness continuing to impact the mobile communications industry. ” 

Apples results show that it sold 13.7m devices in 2008 which is about 1-1.5% of the total worldwide market by volume.  The last quarter saw only 4.4m sold rather than the 5m the market estimated. The key comment made in the Earning Call was that the iPhone performs poorly in non-subsidised markets, indicates that at some point when demand evens out carriers will have more power over the price they pay Apple for the handset. 

With 40% of the handset market and the Integrated model rather than contract manufacturing Nokia has better Economies of scale than its rivals.  Apple is a design house that gets its handset made by Hon Hi as a contract manufacturer.  When you are making Phones in small volumes doing so in someone-else's factory makes sense however is it something that works when you have more than one design and 10% of the market?

Whilst some see the entry of Apple and Google into the handset market as the opening of the ecosystem thanks to the application platforms that they present I have to ask if the economics work?  The Network Operators have made investments in infrastructure, distribution and support over the last 20 years.  Why would they not expect some return on that investment and security over the future customer revenues?

Looking at the history of Mobile I recall that Nokia assumed that with the arrival of Data services in the late 1990's it presented a chance to take control of the consumer with the launch of Club Nokia as the primary Wap bookmark.  The result was a boycott by the networks until they localised devices for each Operator.

Talking to those who work in FMCG I am told that advertising is not about getting someone to switch from Coke to Pepsi but rather to get them to increase the volumes they consume.  The same is true with Handsets most people say that they are a Nokia user, Sony Ericsson person, Blackberry Addict rather than Orange customer, Vodafone Fan, O2 Punter.  This Brand loyalty makes it difficult for new entrants to capture market share the rise of Blackberry and HTC has taken 10 years to achieve.

The presentations at Barcelona next month will be interesting in that we in Europe will get to see the new Palm Pre and perhaps the first Android based handsets from Motorola as well as new handsets from all those in the mainstream.  I hope that we will get to see the first devices that use the Snap Dragon chip which could offer features better than the current smartphones with hopefully better battery life. 

Nokia will innovate devices in the economic downturn.  The conditions hopefully will mean that they cut a number of handsets from the product range in an effort to improve the user experience and quality of the offering.  In light of the downturn will Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson be able to do the same? If they fail to then they will be the ones who lose out to the New Entrants.  Before I see Apple as anything other than an opportunist they will need to offer a range of handsets similar to their iPod or Laptops.

Is this lazy analysis?

The last few days has seen a number of sites pick up on the latest news from Canalys bout the shape of the smartphone market. The latest view on the shape and movement in Smartphones is that Apple has grabbed second place in the market with some 17% jumping over RIM and Windows Mobile. Getting detailed numbers on the size of the business market is very difficult and looking at the PR for this report I have to question some of the assumptions.

Whilst I have no reason to question the analysis of Apples success with the 3G iPhone I have to question the numbers for both RIM and Windows Mobile. Over the course of my work I has been difficult to accurately get shipment numbers for either of these companies, the Management of both are very good at not answering questions and the fact that the distribution channels are different to the classic handset business that sell to consumers. Whilst both RIM and HTC do sell handsets to the consumer most are business sales and are thus far more difficult to measure.

I do agree that Apple will have a fight to keep it's position as number 2 in the market now that most fans who wanted the God phone have got one. Since the period this report covers is the one that includes the summer I would expect to see changes in the next two reports that see Apple slip to 4. Symbian's performance as the dominant supplier could be interesting, this report shows that in the period 18.5M Symbian handsets were sold which is somewhat above the forecast given by Symbian themselves at their recent Smartphone show.

iPhone 2.0 a stepping stone not Nirvana

So one week into iPhone 2.0 and what do I think so far?

The device is owned by four friends so far. Another few have said that they would upgrade to one after the summer holidays once others have smoothed out the bugs for them.

Would I get a iPhone or am I waiting for a Sony Ericsson Xperia X1 which should be available in September?

I think that I will pass on the iPhone at present. I was lucky enough to be given a 32GB iTouch which I have upgraded to 2.0 and so am able to share in some of the excitement of the App Store. I would have issues with the iPhone on battery life and my big fat falanges make text input a bind. I also am finding Mobile Me a little light of functions compared even to the SE Phone Suite when it copmes to moving data between laptop and device.

The App Store is interesting and I wonder how long before we might see similar on the Operator Portals for ALL handsets. Russell Beattie points out that it is not something thought up by Apple but rather borrowed from Qualcomm who developed it for the Brew Platform.

I am still to be convinced that Mr Jobs is committed to the Mobile Phone market. You only have to look at the present pain felt by others to ask if he has the endurance? The iPhone has not broken the market for Mobile, Apple have learnt just as Nokia did that the Networks are still key in any relationship with the user thanks to the billing relationship reather than coverage. Whilst we see statistics that show a significant number of users of mobile data services none yet say that for any particular service they are exclusive users of the service! Thus Apple are doing things better than others but it is still the same user activity if different experience.

I might become more conviced about the iPhone if I could discover more than one form factor. When it comes to iPods I am give a choice not just in terms of storeage but also in terms of form factor with the Shuffle, Nano, Classic and iTouch but when one looks at the iPhone you get two coloure and two sizes! Not exactaly a wide range, even compared to RIM for example.

I am sure that now we have a 3G iPhone we can expect to see more people using one. A number of committed MAC fans will now be ready to own one, dispite having to downgrade the quality of their camera. I am confident that in those markets where the Consumer has choice we will see even better penetration. I guess we will have to wait until we have iPhone 3.0 before we can say if this was a fad or a serious player in the game?

Recent thoughts

Having spent a few days offline a few post on the internet recently have caught my attention.

Over at ReadWriteWeb they have two post that are worth reading. First we had a new study on iPhone users, that tells us they are far from usual phone owners. If this is the case it adds weight to my observation that what they are doing in terms of mobile data has to be discounted as the actions of early adopters. The Mobile Web needs alot of work done before it crosses the chasam one of the biggest is user education, to oftan those in the industry fail to realise that the key features for a normal user are phone + text + clock. This is something that has been emphasised to me in the last year as my twins have started to use mobile phones. What music they do do is side loaded, very little is peer to peer because it take to long to bluetooth.

The other is an updating of Mobile Web Trends and Products by Rudy De Waele. As someone who helps run one of the Mobile Monday chapters Rudy has an excellent understanding of the zeitgeist. Some of the Start Ups to watch are new to me, but others are businesses that have been trying for quite sometime to build a customer base.

Symbian/Nokia have a lot of work to do in America if this study is anything to go by. I know that the sample size is small, but it does help to explain all the America Investment Managers foolish questions on how Apple and RIM are fighting for the Enterprise space.

VisionMobile has an excellent post on User Interface technology which shows that it does not need to be only Apple that have all the bells and whistles!

Harris Interactive reports that America is ready for M-Banking, but are the Networks in synch with the Banks, Consumers and Payment Groups?

I have discovered MobileStance and his post on Anarchy in the UK is an excellent introduction into his blog.

Off message I was sent this by one of my contacts one LinkedIn it is something I believe in and so thought that I would ask those who read this to watch it.

Looks like I was not the only one that passed on the iPhone

Reading the reports on the launch of the iPhone over the last 24 hours and it does not look like good news for Apple.

In the Telegraph O2 says that they had a great weekend and sold more phones than Carphone Warehouse. The interesting snippet was the spokeman saying that once you get people in the shop they can sell them something.

Over at Dialaphone they have a number of photos of empty CPW shops showing just how the UK wanted an iPhone after a week of wall to wall coverage.

Spoke to a few who might have been iPhone customers and they said that they have gone for the iTouch because it was a smart iPod without a poor phone.

Now I expect to see a new iPhone after Christmas that will improve on the launch handset. Will Steve say sorry to the mugs that bought one before the relaunch with another iTunes voucher? I am not too sure we are a long way from his main market.

What might the new handset have? It needs a better camera, faster radio and a full Bluetooth radio. It also needs a different business model for Europe, I am not the only one saying that the price is too high. Apple needs to realise that the consumer will not pay over £100/€150 for a handset and if they are to "tax" the networks for its iPhone customers it needs to drop the entry price.

The iPhone is coming

This week O2 stepped up the marketing push for the iPhone. The FT ran a story that they expected to sell 200,000 handsets before Christmas. Peter Erskine was on the BBC radio spreading the word prior to launch on Friday.

Now in the run up to Christmas the UK will buy some 3Million handsets and so 200,000 does not look that great. The concern that I have is whilst the Apple store is always busy I just do not see the consumer demand once you have managed to use the phone. I think that a large number of those handsets sold by Carphone Warehouse could be returned by disappointed customers looking to get something that works.

Whilst I agree that O2 is a Consumer Network I do not think that many on the network are happy to pay over £45 per month. I can only see that the iPhone will not drive the business forward, rather it will expose the limited capability of the O2 network. I also do not think that the O2 and Apple brands are aligned. O2 claims that a third of all text messages are sent on its network, the latest figures show that over 1 billion were sent in the UK. As I and others have said the iPhone does not do text very well this is another reason why I say that it will not be the happy event that some are saying.

Watching TV last night and I saw my first iPhone advert and I have to say that I was not overly impressed. This was an advert that showed some of how the handset works.

Just hope that the Google Phone is something that breaks the game open when the covers come off this week.

Step back and ask who asked for this service

Yesterday we saw 3 carry on with its disruptive approach to the mobile market with the launch of the Skypephone. Others have written how this is just the thing needed to break the walled garden and the arrival of free phone calls.


Last night the Gadget Show on Channel 5 here in the UK had a comparison of the iPhone against the Nokia N95. Time and again the two presenters showed how the American designed phone lacked the power Europeans demand in its camera, texting and connection speeds. However everyone want to look at the Apple phone because it was attractive.


Both these features meant that I was grumpy by the time I went to sleep as once again they demonstrated just what is wrong with Mobile at the moment. We are too focused on the latest technology than making sure what we have works.


What we need to look at is just who is going to buy a new service, and when they do are they going to be happy with the quality and price.


Taking the use of Skype, if I use it it is not because it is free it is because I know that I get to talk with someone rather than voicemail. Email no longer works with many of my contacts as they have a vast backlog of unread messages that means that too often the response comes too late. I use texts to set up a call with a few people because they are not on Skype. With Skype I check availability and then call on my mobile or landline because my monthly fee has a large call allowance which most months I do not fully use.

The free calls that 3 are promoting are on net Skype to Skype calls. This means that they in fact a closed community, if you want to call an real number then you are charge for it. Thus waht you have is a service that 3 hope will stimulate more calls terminating on its network in the same way that they were paying those onPAYG to receive calls. I do not think that the service is mass market and I do not think that its disruptive. I can see a few early adopters carrying a second or third handset to play with the service.

If rumours are to be believed this month Google will finally lift its skirts and show us what it has got in the way of a mobile phone service. Once again a few will say that they have seen the light and that the Internet has once again showed the dumb operators that open is best. What they might need to look at is the architecture models currently running in the networks that seeCAPEX cycles triggered when capacity hits 70% this is far lower than in the fixed world. This fact means that we have owners of the assets looking to manage traffic far more than those in the fixed world.

I know that this post is not well argued but then I am angry that once again hype has trumped logic. Use the comment box to ask a question or point out why I am wrong and I will respond in a more structured manner.

More Truephone "good news"

Truephone has demoed its software running on an iPhone just as Apple lock down handsets that have been hacked.

Will we see Truephone take Apple to court when they get locked out? They say that they have every right to run on the Apple platform using the browser and wifi to make calls.

Guess they have not read that one of the key elements in any iPhone deal is that Mr Jobs not only gets the tribe to pay top dollar for his equipment he also gets a share of the revenues. Hope that the Truephone guys can make the app work on a Touch because they wont get it to work on an iPhone for long.

Wonder if they can demo it on the T-Mobile network next month when it goes live in Germany?

My 2p worth on the iPhone

Rather than post this at the time of Steve Jobs announcement that Apple had joined the handset market I decided to wait and see what others had to say before adding to the noise.

What I know about the new phone has been gathered from the Internet and Press rather than me actually seeing the device at MacWorld. Carlo and Russell have done a good job looking at the launch of the phone and others comments. Ajit over at Open Gardens has done his usuall meta analysis of the situation. Ged at Renaissance Chambara says that like all Apple fan boys his thinks that the new phone is sexy it is not for him.

I think that what Jobs has done is disruptive but I do not think that Nokia and Sony Ericsson needs to worry too much about this first release. My hope is that the launch of the iPhone will effect the way that Mobile Networks deal with User Interfaces. I think that as a closed system rather than a smartphone what Apple have done is launch a niche handset for the US market. As such I do not think that the iPhone will get a market share much larger than either the Blackberry or WindowsMobile.

Working with Mobile Networks as I do I have to say that they have issues supporting all the formats and operating systems that they do at present adding another will increase the complexity by another factor. Just look at the number of people who have complained about the lack of support for Treo handsets and ask why would Apple be any different?

I think that in a months time we will see a number of new handsets that will make the iPhone look very dated and this will mean that the iPhone becomes something akin to the Mottorola Razr i.e. the Fashion Victims handset where form out does function. This being the point I fear that I might just be buying two when the launch so that my twins can fit in at their new school.

It looks like the the Independent has the same view as me. Hamish McRae says that Apple's entry into the phone industry will not change the market, its innovation might! The more I chat with others the more my opinion crystalises. I do not think that we can expect to see Apple replace Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola and Samsung at the top of the tree after all we are talking about ONE handset. The fact that are in the market might however finally force Motorola to do something about its appalling user interface. Apple could force Sony Ericsson and Nokia to take their A Game to the networks and insist that customisation of the interface is no more than the placing of short cuts onto a phone. A word of caution for Apple has to be that the list of those who no longer make handsets is very long and if they are not careful they will join it.