Sunday, November 09, 2008

Is this lazy analysis?

The last few days has seen a number of sites pick up on the latest news from Canalys bout the shape of the smartphone market. The latest view on the shape and movement in Smartphones is that Apple has grabbed second place in the market with some 17% jumping over RIM and Windows Mobile. Getting detailed numbers on the size of the business market is very difficult and looking at the PR for this report I have to question some of the assumptions.

Whilst I have no reason to question the analysis of Apples success with the 3G iPhone I have to question the numbers for both RIM and Windows Mobile. Over the course of my work I has been difficult to accurately get shipment numbers for either of these companies, the Management of both are very good at not answering questions and the fact that the distribution channels are different to the classic handset business that sell to consumers. Whilst both RIM and HTC do sell handsets to the consumer most are business sales and are thus far more difficult to measure.

I do agree that Apple will have a fight to keep it's position as number 2 in the market now that most fans who wanted the God phone have got one. Since the period this report covers is the one that includes the summer I would expect to see changes in the next two reports that see Apple slip to 4. Symbian's performance as the dominant supplier could be interesting, this report shows that in the period 18.5M Symbian handsets were sold which is somewhat above the forecast given by Symbian themselves at their recent Smartphone show.

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