What I'd like to hear in Barcelona next week

Have been thinking about the upcoming MWC2012 and rather than looking at what shinny new handsets will be shown and how the GSMA will be "helping" the industry move forwards through strategic alliances I have written a wish list of what would help the mobile industry move forward.

As we make major strides toward the fourth generation of mobile networks I would like to see the head of Ericsson lead the industry forwards with an honest assessment of the current state of deployment of 2G, 3G and 4G networks what they are capable of doing and how they need to be melded together to deliver quality of service and best speed possible. The need for better chip design and roadmap to LTE terminals capable of using the high-speed network. What networks need to do to match services with capability.

I want the CTO of a Major Mobile Network to stand up and talk about Security, Security, Security as the cornerstone for the business if we are to move towards cloud based services and leave behind the world of Apps. I am looking for a CTO who can tell me how his Network is secure, my Device is secure and finally my Data is secure. Once he can tell that all three are secure then we can start to talk about the quality of the network in terms of bandwidth and coverage to enable me to do stuff via the Cloud rather than solid state.

I would like a Politician to start talking about how the consumer needs to pay for the use of the resources they consume, how spectrum is a key resource and in an effort to stop people wasting it people need to understand the present model of billing is no longer fit for purpose. In an effort to aid the consumer his Government has stopped selling spectrum but rather is now licensing blocks to Networks and the effectively regulating them for poor services, once the network is built and running effectively they intend to tax the Networks on profits made. The Regulation of New Mobile Networks will be done of the basis of coverage and speed in relation to the population and to assist in the quick and effect build out of networks planning permission has been revised to allow replacement of old equipment with the latest without needing a new permit.

Can we have an evangelist from the Silicon designers who is capable of explaining why System on a Chip designs are a compromise whilst we await better batteries, how the new Wifi and Fixed Wireless Broadband standards will impact on the development of GSM standards and how at this moment there are no chips capable of covering all the available spectrum and thus Software Defined Radio is once again stalled. Will the industry representative also take a stick to the current trend towards smaller smartphones and point out that what is needed are designs that will get teens, blue collar and emerging markets doing more with mobiles?

Finally can Martin Sorrell talk about how marketing is killing mobile as only an idiot would expect advertising to generate the revenues needed to give someone a free phone. As we become more aware of the way data on our habits is sold what kind of fool would allow themselves to be ripped off? What Brand would coupon customers to such a level that they make no money, once to get someone in the shop fine but if you have to keep doing it then they are parasites not customers because they will never afford what you are selling. Effective marketing is about getting people with money to pay as much as possible for stuff, when they stops the business starts to die and finally goes bankrupt. Consumers use of mobile is different from fixed and so don't just think that it is a new media on which to send junk mail.

The above are my hopes, my expectation is that we will be talking about a few new handsets that will keep Android out in front of the iPhone, RIM still has not got what it takes to compete with Apple and Google and Nokia can still make great hardware. The GSMA will talk about m-Health being the next big market for mobile and Machine-2-Machine is going to be massive (it's not as big as they think because lots of smart-meters will use powerline technology rather than 3G) and look at the success of M-Banking.

Time for a change?

If we are to see Mobile to continue to grow, then some structural changes are needed. With change at the top of Vodafone could we have a catalyst for change?

The new CEO of Vodafone offers something different from the status quo. In Viterio Colao you have someone with the skills of a Strategy Consultant supplemented with Operational Experience of a Country Manager. Having worked in the Italian Media industry he also has developed diplomatic skills that sees him able to form federations.

The price of a mobile minute is afalling thanks to competition and regulation. Whilst I expect to pay some premium for my use of mobile over fixed it is not as great as it once was. The reason for the deflation in the value that I place on the value has to do with my perception that mobile coverage is not as good as it once was; along with the lack of innovation in the basic product, Voice. Those that offer Mobile Data Services have failed to grasp the fact that for me it is connectivity for my Laptop whilst I enjoy a coffee between meetings rather than ebay and facebook coverage on my handset.

With a new CEO vodafone can take advantage of their scale and influence to alter the way the whole ecosystem functions. They could acknowledge the fact that at this moment the revenue streams are out of kilter and recent adjustments have not achieved a better balance.

At the moment Equipment Manufacturers have little incentive to innovate with margins falling over the last two years to less than 5%. If Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks or Nortel cannot find a reason to invest in developing new data solutions then what chance the Mobile Internet? The current Mobile Broadband has placed a massive load on the OSS and BSS systems in Mobile Networks as 5% of users are consuming two thirds of all data on the network. Whilst Huawei have excelled in the development of HSDPA/HSUPA/HSDP+ as they have taken marketshare to the point that today sees them leading the field; what will motivate them to create the flat architecture needed to open the mobile web?

The content space is no better with those that provide free content doing better than those who have a subscription service. The quality of the network means that very few attempts to watch streaming media by myself have been a success. Efforts by Networks to impose additional standards have resulted in displacing successful content with bland services that nobody wants. The iTunes platform is not something loved by Artists because the economics are wrong however the portal approach of Mobile Networks seeks to replicate this.

The battle between Handset Manufacturers and Mobile Networks seems to have swung to much in favour of the Networks. Sony Ericsson joined others in reporting a slowing of sales this year and a lowering of its average selling price. This means that they will expect to get a better return on the investment it makes in handset design which means that we can expect handsets to stick around longer. The only people I know who upgrade the firmware on a phone are iPhone users who are prompted to do so when they connect the device to a computer rather than over the air. To many early adopters have attempted to do so on other devices and turned them into bricks because of Operator profiles. If we slow the rate of release of new handsets then we will slow the rate of innovation as this is the only way that we can seed new services. We are now looking a handset makers moving towards three platforms in a way similar to the computer market with Windows Mobile, Symbian and Linux. This lowers the cost of deployment for Mobile Networks and makes the developers lives easier because the APIs needed will be smaller.

Recent projects have seen me look at the launch of Mobile Banking in the US. Over the last year they have managed to get over 8M Consumers to move from the Internet to the Phone. Some are just doing simple queries whilst just under half are making payments. This market is serviced by a wide range of service enablers who have acted as trusted providers sitting between Banks and Mobile Networks. All in the process share the rewards in a federated approach no one is talking about "my customers" rather it is about users. Dependent on the handset and my financial needs I can Bank using SMS, Browser or Java Aplet. All those working in Mobile Banking have a common evolutionary path that sees them working towards Mobile Payments and then Mobile Wallet over the next 2-3 years. They will include Store Cards, Coupons, NFC, Access and Keys in the evolutionary steps. They are all able to work on the development of functionality because they have a framework that is stable thanks to the Federated approach.

The work of the European Commission seems to be to reduce the mobile premium to zero via regulation.

Taking all of the points above I would hope that Stratergy in Vodafone would apply some degree of logic that says its time to make a massive change otherwise we face the risk of becoming a dumb pipe. If European Networks do not change the way that they deal with partners then they will find themselves by passed. The difference between fixed and mobile is that mobile has the payments mechanism built in thus connected consumers with retailers the mobile network could take a commission on the sale. If Vodafone were to look outside of Telecoms and say we will become a facilitator in the same way as Tecso's Clubcard provider the ARPU will not come just from handset user but from those that want to communicate with them; this is after all the plan of Blyk. Better software installed at the level of the base station could improve the information that the Mobile Networks gather and thus aid knowledge about the users. At this moment my Network providers know very little about me or my useage of mobile as I us more than one network and so simple bill anaysis fails.

In Europe rather than buying new subscribers the focus needs to be getting more of the current subscribers wallet. As a mobile user we all have a budget, some of the most informed users are those with a limited budget. My daughters and their classmates have an excellent knowledge of prices for mobile and are innovating how they share content off network. What they present for Vodafone is a communication chanel which used correctly will provide revenues far greater than the amount they spend on connectivity. The FMCG community has an excellent knowledge of Brands and are will to pay for a conversation with small groups who they can get to spend money on increasing the money they already spend on a product.

If you look at the failure of WiMAX, IMS, MMS ..... to find a market you will see that one common feature is the lack of a common ecosystem. Perhaps if these technologies had first attempted to form a Federation then they would have been a success? Vodafone has the power thanks to size and footprint. Does it have a CEO prepared to change the game?

Interesting thought on Mobile

Today I had lunch with Christian Lindholm and Dan Applequist, the sun came back to town and so I decided to let the conversation flow rather than just clockwatch after having a meeting cancelled.

Christian has been working for Yahoo but before that he was the lead for the S60 at Nokia and is very much a UI guy. Dan is one of the founders of MobileMonday in London and thanks to his day job at Vodafone has a role on a numberof standards boards for Mobile Internet. I have over the past year had a number of chats in interesting places but this is the first time that we have spoken.

The two guys are a lot more technical than myself, and as such approach a situation from different levels. Both have a higher public profile thanks to the fact that they speak at a number of events and thus probably have a wider group of associates. They both see the Mobile Interne as something that is starting to take off and is important to the Mobile sector. Now that Christia is paying his own bills he has become interested in new tools that allow him to speak with his friends worldwide without being ripped off by his network.

Whilst we agreed that the Network and the Handset makers are important we also said that niether as yet own the customer. This fact offers a wide number an opportunity to succeed in the Mobile space. In putting the world to rights we thought that the key areas are PIM replication and the use of the SIM toolkit to allow improved security and payment of content.

One of the points that came out was the fact that services such as Cognima and Wildfire would today have a high take up, but the fact that they were killed by the networks sometime ago means that a relaunch would be difficult. The other issue is that any data service has to overcome the fact that SMS is such a cashcow for the networks anything that stops users send texts has a very high hurdle to clear.

The interesting point for me as I made my way home tonight is that a lot of what we are trying to do today on Mobile we have been trying for a very long time. The development is still a way off and the guys who might be the ones to achieve are goals are those who at first we did not trust rather than the network and the handset guys.

I still think that the mobile is a phone first and that voice needs to be at the centre of what we all do. Perhaps next time we need to light the bar-b-que and spend the time talking in detail now that we have started these thoughts, I guess I will find out if Christian and Dan follow up on today!

I am off to see if I can find Douglas Adams keynote at GSM World before Christian.

My 2p worth on the iPhone

Rather than post this at the time of Steve Jobs announcement that Apple had joined the handset market I decided to wait and see what others had to say before adding to the noise.

What I know about the new phone has been gathered from the Internet and Press rather than me actually seeing the device at MacWorld. Carlo and Russell have done a good job looking at the launch of the phone and others comments. Ajit over at Open Gardens has done his usuall meta analysis of the situation. Ged at Renaissance Chambara says that like all Apple fan boys his thinks that the new phone is sexy it is not for him.

I think that what Jobs has done is disruptive but I do not think that Nokia and Sony Ericsson needs to worry too much about this first release. My hope is that the launch of the iPhone will effect the way that Mobile Networks deal with User Interfaces. I think that as a closed system rather than a smartphone what Apple have done is launch a niche handset for the US market. As such I do not think that the iPhone will get a market share much larger than either the Blackberry or WindowsMobile.

Working with Mobile Networks as I do I have to say that they have issues supporting all the formats and operating systems that they do at present adding another will increase the complexity by another factor. Just look at the number of people who have complained about the lack of support for Treo handsets and ask why would Apple be any different?

I think that in a months time we will see a number of new handsets that will make the iPhone look very dated and this will mean that the iPhone becomes something akin to the Mottorola Razr i.e. the Fashion Victims handset where form out does function. This being the point I fear that I might just be buying two when the launch so that my twins can fit in at their new school.

It looks like the the Independent has the same view as me. Hamish McRae says that Apple's entry into the phone industry will not change the market, its innovation might! The more I chat with others the more my opinion crystalises. I do not think that we can expect to see Apple replace Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola and Samsung at the top of the tree after all we are talking about ONE handset. The fact that are in the market might however finally force Motorola to do something about its appalling user interface. Apple could force Sony Ericsson and Nokia to take their A Game to the networks and insist that customisation of the interface is no more than the placing of short cuts onto a phone. A word of caution for Apple has to be that the list of those who no longer make handsets is very long and if they are not careful they will join it.

Mobile Phone uptake is bigger than everything!

Over at Communities Dominate Brands Tomi Ahonen has started the year with an article on just how big 2.7B mobiles mean in terms of technology uptake. Tomi spells out just how big mobiles have become in terms of other technologies and time.

The best part is Tomi's evangelism of just what the adoption of mobile has achievied and how they are aspirational.

Voice! It is all about Voice!

I have been looking at some of the projects that I undertook last year and some of the new ones for this and once again I have to say that everyone in the Mobile industry seems to forget that it's about VOICE .

I have now been using 3G for over two years and the biggest disappointment is not that the Web2.0 services are slow to take off, it is the fact that others ask if I am calling them whilst I am on the toilet as the call quality is so poor! I had hoped that the work I undertook at the time of the spectrum bids would see the light of day by now. Talking over coffee with others and it seems that the issue is once again one of legacy, what is the point of giving me a device with excellent voice if the person I am calling is still using a handset that is four years old?

I have to say that unlike the switch to colour displays the failings of voice are more urgent. When I next get the opportunity to talk with Senior Executives in the Operators it's my intention to raise the issue of call quality. The reason that people are not happy to substitute mobile minutes for fixed is not about price it is because having a conversation over 3 minutes on a Mobile can result in a headache. This has nothing to do with microwaves and everything to do with the quality of the network and bandwidth given to voice. Just as I have been prepared to invest in a better set of headphones for my MP3 player so that it is enjoyable to listen to music as I travel, I would invest in a handset that improves the voice quality.

Talking with people at Sony Ericsson it is not a question of poor technology in the handset. The issue is with the network where planning is at fault when it comes to voice.

Once Orange believed in a wirefree life which saw Voice at the centre of the offering. At this time they invested in a company called Wildfire and made a promotional video call "Adam and Eve" they sent out Evangelists to promote the view that we would soon have a relationship with them based on Voice. They had a vision that saw the mobile phone as a remote for our life, they said that one day soon we would be able to do this with something as small as a stud in your ear. Then they stopped believing and lost there way and decided that what we needed was not hope but training!

Why to I believe that Voice is the future? Well in looking at E-Plus in Germany you see a CEO who has put voice at the centre of his strategy. He does not believe that the future as mobile data services and as such has declined to invest in new equiupment. He says what is needed is to get the customer to buy and then use the phone in their hand. His idea has won him new customers and hurt his rivals so he might just have something right. I hope to be able to test his service in the next few months when I am working in Germany to see if he can make the voice quality issue that I have here go away.