Which way does Microsoft turn when it comes to Mobile?

Yessterday Microsoft wrote off the full cost of the Nokia purchase confirming that the addition had failed to change its fortunes within the Mobile sector.  I have watched Microsoft continuely fail in the mobile space for over 15 years with either poor software or limited hardware.  So what does Microsoft do now, walk away from the sector or can it be an effective player?

I think that it has one last roll of the dice.  Look at Microsoft as a whole and whilst it does have some exposure in the consumer space it is predominately an Enterprise business.  If it is to be a success then it should embrace the Enterprise market for mobile solutions and buy BlackBerry.  In doing so it would have an operating system capable of interfacing with Exchange Servers and open up a wide range of poosibilities for itself and its partners.  A BlackBerry that is part of Microsoft would be able to move into the Blue Collar sector and stop losing Professional customers thanks to imporoved Channel Partners who could deliver customers in the tens of thousands.

In the early days of Mobile Data Windows CE was used in the majority of handheld terminals used in logistics, field service engineering and government sectors.  As mobile has become more important to businesses Microsoft has lost its focus and whilst some have attempted to eat into the market with the launching of Apps.  These Apps are a compromise given that iOS and Android do not have enough APIs to open up all the functionality needed for Enterprise Mobility.

The rise of Apple and Android has lowered the valuation of BlackBerry and Microsoft has a large cash pile that it can use to fund a purchase.  BlackBerry can be happy with a new owner that is unlikely to closedown it's Canadian offices and make large redundancies rather they will have someone likely to invest and increase the workforce so Regulatory approval will be easier than say selling to a Far East Manufacturer or Software company.

Some thoughts about the recent developments in the handset space

Well the summer has been an eventful one for Handset Manufacturers.  We have had the expected refresh of the benchmark for smartphone from Apple and whilst they have managed to break sales records thanks to clever marketing and management of supply they didn't in my opinion retake leadership of the sector. Samsung continues to drive ahead with the expansion of the Galaxy brand thanks to a refresh of the Note and the introduction of a wristwatch form factor as remote control/2nd Screen. The car crashes have been spectacular with Nokia exiting the market via a fire sale to Microsoft quickly bettered by the offer for BlackBerry by Fairfax. Have not started analysis of the performance of HTC, LG, Sony who seem to have become casualties in the OS wars of recent years not server enough to kill them but bad enough to make them marginal players.

On the Apple front I was pleased to see just like others in the fashion industry they have given up trying to make size zero yet slimmer. I just hope that they and others will take note of the reviews of the two new iPhones side by side that report the 5c feels better in the hand and start adding curves. But please don't go over the top with a Kim Kardashian inspired monster, if that were to happen it would be on a par with the Pink Motorola V3 razr and signal that innovation had died and marketing was going to kill the business. On a negative front the changes seen with iO7 seem to be cosmetic rather than a genuine shift that takes into account that a 4G handset is a very different device to one that spends most of its time on Wifi. Perhaps next year the designers will rock up with a new OS that moves the world forward rather than paint lipstick on a fading star?

Samsung is a company that always surprises me when ever I interface with it. It's old school centralised command and control structure and long term planning seems inflexible yet surprises in getting the market right.  Unlike any of the other Handset Guys it still seems to value it's channel partners and has strong relationships with the mobile networks who after all will sell the majority of its handsets. Yet design by committee does seem to be throwing up some strange selections. The Mobile Phone business has spent twenty years telling people that don't need to wear a device on the wrist to tell the time and yet they come out and launch such a device.  Looking at the functionality I would have hoped that they would have followed Polar and combined fitness applications alongside the ability to be a second screen for a tablet/phone.

What can I say about Nokia without sounding like Tomi Ahonen? I would point out that when Nokia overtook Motorola to become Number 1 in the world it did so working with the Network Operators and up until the arrival of Elop maintained strong links.  The business was not in bad shape until it started listening to those say they need to get like Apple and so they put all their eggs in the Microsoft basket.

Until last week I was sure that Nokia would be the Business School case study in the decline and fall of mobile phone businesses but then we had BlackBerry!  Just WOW when will the lawyers start filing claims against the Board for mismanagement? When will the regulators start asking questions about financial mismanagement? When will the stockholders realise that Fairfax are the undertakers rather than saviours for the business and the body has greater value to others and seek better offers?  I don't think that we have heard the last on BlackBerry and would not be surprised to see Microsoft own the business once the dust has settled.

I think that we need a decent competitor to Google when it comes to Mobile OS and Apple is not it because it is focused just on the high end. I stronger better Microsoft that uses features from BES/BIS and can manufacture low cost devices that are sold via partners is just the kind of business that would scare the Californian Tech set and in doing so might force them to innovate and develop for a world based on 4G connectivity rather than the patch work networks we see today.

All that is wrong with the US view of mobile

Have read Scoble's post on the problem with Europe's mobile scene and raised my blood pressure to a level that has caused me to post.

Here in Europe we have a number of advantages over the Americans. First we have Networks that they can only dream of in terms of coverage and speed so should the user wish to they can adopt mobile data services. We have thus decided that using a laptop with mobile broadband is a better way to surf than a smartphone.

In terms of innovation we have leadership in LTE, Handsets and Network Ownership. We are looking at how voice can be improved.

Whilst the US feels that it invented the Mobile and now once again owns the space it is not about just one device. Last year more people bought a single Nokia handset than all the smartphones sold in the world. Mobile payments in the form of micropayments for content and services in Europe is far more than Apple has made from the Ap Store.

Looking at the history of mobile data services it is far from certain that the Ap Store is going to become a cornerstone of all things mobile. One thing that Europe is better than the US at is regulation and the exclusive nature of the iPhone is something that the EU will regulate against; just ask Microsoft and Intel if you are unsure. Without regulation what is to say that the Ap Store is another AvantGo? At the hight of the dot.com bubble everyone thought that the web clipping service was the future and now it is little used.

Before we had smartphones we had PDA and everyone was using either an iPaq or Palm a few geeks preferred PSION devices, all these used bluetooth to connect to a mobile and use it as a modem. Now these devices are museum pieces.

In four years time will Apple still be in the mobile phone market or would it have moved on? At this moment in time we have seen three devices in 2 years ALL of which have the same form factor. As a historian of mobile it looks all too much like Motorola with the StarTAC and Razr rather than RIM who have transitioned from a single device to multiple form factors or Nokia with ranges that have global appeal.

We have to remember that the primary function of mobile is a phone rather than internet device. A number of networks are looking at new generation Voice services which will stop downward pricing of the product unlike the fixed world. For the last four years mobile has carried more voice than fixed and for the last eight it has generated more revenues. Having lost out on the fixed revenue stream the Networks are not going to do the same again if they are to continue investment in 4G.

Lets just remember that mobile is just that and all to often we find users of smartphones static. How many times have you bumped into someone walking off a plane as they adopt the Blackberry Prayer to read their phone and though is it that important?

Windows 6 could this be what we are looking for?

Jason Langridge has done a great preview of Microsoft's upgrade of Windows Mobile. He has looked at the 1000+ upgrades to Windows Mobile 5 and as a a Senior Manager within the UK he has been using it for the last year.


Have Microsoft finally managed to develop an OS that gives mobile users something more than voice and texts? Rather than the X series from 3 this might be a platform the gives form to the hopes of the Mobile Web 2.0 fanboys.


On the screenshots it looks like the PIM functions are exceptional and the other office and surfing elements might mean that finally a single device is all that is needed. I guess the proof will be that they have removed the reset button seen on the iPAQ.


Guess the Microsoft briefing might be worth seeing next week in Barcelona.