All that is wrong with the US view of mobile

Have read Scoble's post on the problem with Europe's mobile scene and raised my blood pressure to a level that has caused me to post.

Here in Europe we have a number of advantages over the Americans. First we have Networks that they can only dream of in terms of coverage and speed so should the user wish to they can adopt mobile data services. We have thus decided that using a laptop with mobile broadband is a better way to surf than a smartphone.

In terms of innovation we have leadership in LTE, Handsets and Network Ownership. We are looking at how voice can be improved.

Whilst the US feels that it invented the Mobile and now once again owns the space it is not about just one device. Last year more people bought a single Nokia handset than all the smartphones sold in the world. Mobile payments in the form of micropayments for content and services in Europe is far more than Apple has made from the Ap Store.

Looking at the history of mobile data services it is far from certain that the Ap Store is going to become a cornerstone of all things mobile. One thing that Europe is better than the US at is regulation and the exclusive nature of the iPhone is something that the EU will regulate against; just ask Microsoft and Intel if you are unsure. Without regulation what is to say that the Ap Store is another AvantGo? At the hight of the dot.com bubble everyone thought that the web clipping service was the future and now it is little used.

Before we had smartphones we had PDA and everyone was using either an iPaq or Palm a few geeks preferred PSION devices, all these used bluetooth to connect to a mobile and use it as a modem. Now these devices are museum pieces.

In four years time will Apple still be in the mobile phone market or would it have moved on? At this moment in time we have seen three devices in 2 years ALL of which have the same form factor. As a historian of mobile it looks all too much like Motorola with the StarTAC and Razr rather than RIM who have transitioned from a single device to multiple form factors or Nokia with ranges that have global appeal.

We have to remember that the primary function of mobile is a phone rather than internet device. A number of networks are looking at new generation Voice services which will stop downward pricing of the product unlike the fixed world. For the last four years mobile has carried more voice than fixed and for the last eight it has generated more revenues. Having lost out on the fixed revenue stream the Networks are not going to do the same again if they are to continue investment in 4G.

Lets just remember that mobile is just that and all to often we find users of smartphones static. How many times have you bumped into someone walking off a plane as they adopt the Blackberry Prayer to read their phone and though is it that important?

Technology Futures Network event

Last month I managed to make it up to Oxford to listen to Craig Barrett speak at the Said Business School to a group of MBA students and members of the Technology Futures Network.  The first event of the TFN at the same venue saw Dr Irwin Jacobs of Qualcomm and so it was good to hear another from the chip industry talk.

Craig Barrett has been with Intel from the early days having joined from the teaching staff at Stanford University.  He spoke about the fact that what any country needs to succeed in the present climate is an Environment for Innovation.  The first thing that is needed is Smart People, these are well educated in mathematics and science rather than business and finance.  The next thing that is needed in Smart Ideas, these are both basic development and Blue Sky research.  Finally what is needed is Smart Environments this is somewhere that has Money, Government that taxes smart and offers innovators protection and promotion of their ideas.

Craig went on to talk about planning to eat your own children i.e. what you are doing today will not do for next year therefore if it has to change then you should be the one that does that change.  Look for the Technology Transformation in a sector and grasp the opportunity to upset the status quo and lead that industry.  He used the rise of Nokia and fall of Motorola to demonstrate the change to digital in mobile telecommunications in the mid 1990's. 

One of his grips was that the Bush Government has let the R&D Tax credit system lapse and so now US businesses are offshoring Research and Development because of the tax rates.  Intel at present invests 50% of its budget in South East Asia.  His other major grip is the quality of maths education in the under 12's if a child has a bad teacher in these early school years they are lost to maths because they cannot catch up.

His advise to the MBA students in the room was that they should have read engineering if they want to be a CEO.  The reason is that it equips you to be a better problem solver.  Once you have a management position act like a pre-school child and always ask why - five times to get to the bottom of the problem/issue.

Finally he said that once you become an Executive eat out at the chinese regularly as the best advice he has had was from the fortune cookies.  His top three are 

1. "If you want to win you have to chose to compete"
2. "Small deeds done better than great deeds planned" and
3. "The world is always ready to receive talent with open arms"

After two weeks of working hard to prove assumptions on models in a changing market his opening comment that the future is knowledge therefore education is critical are wise words.