Vodafone UK 5G launch event

July 3rd 2019 and Vodafone have "turned on" it's 5G network to customers.


The Executive team are focusing on a strategy that is about being rational, they are not going to talk about the launch of the new technology as a race. Speed and capacity first, then latency "Goal of 10ms within a few years".  

1. Unlimited data plans for customers and business + New brand campaign
2. Vodafone Together
3. Hatch go live
4. A live 5G world first

They have a 5G Brand Ambassador who will "switch on" the network.

It's Lewis Hamilton a man who's living is going round and round in circles as fast a possible without breaking down. This is one hell of a metaphor for 5G at present.

The gadget fan boys will be wet with joy!

Grumpy OLD folks who remember 3G crash and burn are going to need 

Are we damed to make the same mistakes with 5G as we did with 3G?

Looking around the European Mobile Network Operators I fear that 5G

 will follow a similar path to that travelled by 3G.

In too many meetings it is obvious that those at the top of the 

organisation do not  have a significant understanding of the details. 

Those with the knowledge do not have the authority to make decisions.

 The gap between these two groups is to wide for it to be easily closed.

The race to launch and the nebulous use case for 5G means that we 

are going to enter into a marketing war between companies whose 

customers see them as less relevant than the handset manufacturers. 

This is because they fail to grasp the  simple fact that for the majority 

of smartphone users they might be wireless but not exactly mobile, 

thus they value good quality WiFi over 4G or 5G.

Operators will need to build infrastructure more suited to demand rather

 than the  current model and adopt a new pricing structure that is not 

tied to handset hire purchasing as the underlying driver. This requires 

executives and senior management that have a keen eye for detail and 

are conversant not only with their own  proposition that also rivals. 

Without that they will be doomed to failure. In every European market 

there is overcapacity and as with fibre providers at the height of the dot 

com era some are destined for collapse into bankruptcy. 

Why it is wrong to talk about 5G as if it is a race

Looking at a lot of the coverage this year about the Mobile Network Operator's plans to launch 5G services and they are framed a winning the race to 5G, the prizes for those that are first. This is at best simplistic in the extreme; it frames the argument in a metaphor that is simply WRONG.

Is everyone starting in the same place?

Are the covering the same distance? 

Will the encounter the same hurdles?

Are the subject to the same rules and arbitration?

What is the mythical prize that the winner might expect?  

Might the effort to complete the marathon of launching 5G result in the same outcome as the ancient greek who was the first to run the distance, and the victor expires on crossing the finish line?  

Here in Britain EE was seen as the "winner" in the "race" for 4G. It was such a success that three of the four mobile networks were fighting one another to be rescued by BT when it was looking to buy it's way back into the mobile space. The margin of victory was so slim that the General Public were unable to see it. This has to be the definition of a Pyrrhic victory!

The Mobile Network Operators cannot afford to make the mistakes they did with the launch of 3G and 4G over the past 15 years if they are to survive and deliver on the prospects that 5G is supposed to offer. Thus they themselves need to close down the use of the phrase "race to 5G" and reset expectations that this is not just another G rather it is a step change in what is possible and over time data connections will have improved that life will be different in ways that at present cannot be envisaged.      

What might we see with the next generation of mobile technology?

Everyone is excited about the possibilities of the fifth generation of mobile networks to significantly change the way that mobile "phone" control our lives. Here are a few ideas:

1. Using a 3D hologram rather than travelling so that you can be "in the room" with work colleagues and loved ones,
2. Voice Activated Concierge Service that you allow to read your messages, control your diary etc so that you might manage the information overflow of your daily life,
3. Avatar based news feed that allows you to be updated about what you need/want to know when you want without having to flip across a number of services,
4. Autonomous Cars that self report faults and arrange service appointments based on usage and your needs to "drive",
5. Smart Homes that are capable of turning on lights, heating, running a bath, washing machines, cookers and remote access for deliveries whilst also security features using video based on real time location information from your phone and traffic flows so that you get home and find that the house is how you want it,
6. Augmented Reality that uses the camera in your phone to overlay information for you so that you can move around a new space as if you were a local.

Whilst these are all suggestions about what we could see with 5G services they are in fact predictions that Orange made when planning for the launch of 3G nearly twenty years ago. It was the work of those who staffed the Think Tank that was called The Imaginarium it had people with titles like "ambassador of strategy" and "knowledge consul". It right predicted that Mobile Networks will be about providing life services rather than selling phone calls and that there will be no killer app for wireless.  It made some bold bets on that future, paying $137.5M to the Press Association for a digital news-feed and $137.5M for a start up speech recognition service called Wildfire. Under the ownership of France Telecom these bets did not pay off and the people who dreamt of the future left.

Today we have very few Labs within Telecoms Networks and they are not focused on Innovation as they once were. Perhaps 5G might deliver some of what we thought possible with 3G. Perhaps some of what was predicted failed because demand could not be stimulated significantly to create the market.  Perhaps the Executives who started to run Mobile Networks once 3G launched had to manage the debt in such a way that they gave away Customer Relationships to the likes of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google without getting anything in return. If 5G is to change anything it needs to change the way that infrastructure is paid for and valued.

Back to the future?

When Racal and British Telecom launched mobile telephone networks in the UK in 1985 they were separated from the customer by Service Providers. The Economist in a leader thinks that when it comes to 5G it might be an idea to return to because the business case does not work for current networks to build multiple overlapping infrastructure.

BT Broadband plans, to little to late?

Woke up this morning to CEO of BT Openreach talking on Radio 4 about the plan to accelerate his Fibre to the Premises build programme so that he has a chance of hitting 3m homes and buildings by 2020. In order to work 50% faster than it is at the moment BT will be hiring 3,000 engineers.  It would seem that HR Director Kevin Brady has massive task on his hands given that candidate require very little in entry skills if this is anything to go on. 

When you look at the investment made to deliver Fibre to Milton Keynes by rival CityFibre it looks like the plans of BT are not aggressive enough and by the time they have hit the 10m target the technology they are deploying is unlikely to be capable of serving needs of 5G mobile.

Mobile Futures

It's been a while since I have blogged but hopefully over the next few days I'll start to establish a better routine.

Expect 2018 to see a number of Mobile Networks doing proof of concept trials of 5G, we are seeing the first in Europe with DT is already doing so, more will follow. Physical Devices will start to become available in the last quarter of the year once chipsets move into preproduction phase.

The focus for IoT should move away from Consumer fantasy solutions to more of a focus on Enterprise offerings because significant elements of integration will be required if the sector is to be more than just basic plug and play applications. IoT needs to evolve into a major market because a significant amount of planning around its demand for capacity has been used to justify the need for 5G at a time when 4G has yet to be completely deployed. Without being able to show new markets Mobile Networks are not likely to be able to raise the finances needed to build 5G out.

I expect to see more criticism of the negative effects of Smartphones on our everyday lives as people start to realise that the App ecosystems rather than helping is hurting. I left Facebook over a year ago, when I upgraded my phone in Summer 2016 I removed the Facebook App that was preinstalled. I do not have notifications enabled on by phone for anything other than email, and then it is only my work account. It is not mobile phones that are doing the damage it is what you allow on them and how you then live with that software. But just as it is usual the child of someone who works in technology who is last to get a phone at school it is those in the sector who are least likely to use excessively the technology.                                         

Running a Telecoms Network is about a lot more than just deal making you just have to look at the problems of those who jumped on the M&A bus and crashed into a pile of debt as the consolidation boom they embarked on failed to deliver the riches from scaling up. As you layer generation upon generation of technology the issue becomes more complex not just in terms of Infrastructure but also Customer expectations and demand. Before the iPhone we saw a broad spectrum of handset designs enable by the fact that manufacturing processes were controlled by Equipment makers rather than outsourced. Today Smartphones are all the say form factor and operate one of two software systems this means that the generation that has known nothing but smartphones has a set of expectation and behaviours vastly different from those whom started out with phones that were primarily phones.

So how might things be made better? Can it be done without the need to Regulate and litigate? Are Investors happy to allocate capital at a rate that allows development? I will try and post a few thoughts on how to go forward without breaking confidentiality clauses signed with clients of the next few weeks. 

Somethings to ponder

The Google future is one that means you only need to speak one language. Alongside showing the Phone that Google hopes will "incentivise" Android Handset Makers they showed off a headset that allows real time translation. Will this be the Babble Fish of Douglas Adams fame or is it going to lead to mistakes that a Comedy Writer could only dream of?

Interesting round up on the current state of UK's next round of Spectrum Auctions over at Telecoms.com gives Ofcom more credit that they are due, but I also think that a delay might not be a bad thing given that most Networks are still trying to figure out just what they are going to do with 5G.

Softbank investment in to the UK post purchase of ARM is highlighted in this report. Whilst the UK headcount has grown so has the non-UK headcount and I expect that the increase will be greater outside of the UK going forward given the politics of a post Brexit UK.

Technology Review has an interesting post on the problems being a Futurologist that is worth a read. Almost all of the thoughts about the potential for AI could have been written by the staff of Orange's Imaginerium in 1999 when they modelled what customrers would be using the 3G network for once it launched.