What I'd like to hear in Barcelona next week

Have been thinking about the upcoming MWC2012 and rather than looking at what shinny new handsets will be shown and how the GSMA will be "helping" the industry move forwards through strategic alliances I have written a wish list of what would help the mobile industry move forward.

As we make major strides toward the fourth generation of mobile networks I would like to see the head of Ericsson lead the industry forwards with an honest assessment of the current state of deployment of 2G, 3G and 4G networks what they are capable of doing and how they need to be melded together to deliver quality of service and best speed possible. The need for better chip design and roadmap to LTE terminals capable of using the high-speed network. What networks need to do to match services with capability.

I want the CTO of a Major Mobile Network to stand up and talk about Security, Security, Security as the cornerstone for the business if we are to move towards cloud based services and leave behind the world of Apps. I am looking for a CTO who can tell me how his Network is secure, my Device is secure and finally my Data is secure. Once he can tell that all three are secure then we can start to talk about the quality of the network in terms of bandwidth and coverage to enable me to do stuff via the Cloud rather than solid state.

I would like a Politician to start talking about how the consumer needs to pay for the use of the resources they consume, how spectrum is a key resource and in an effort to stop people wasting it people need to understand the present model of billing is no longer fit for purpose. In an effort to aid the consumer his Government has stopped selling spectrum but rather is now licensing blocks to Networks and the effectively regulating them for poor services, once the network is built and running effectively they intend to tax the Networks on profits made. The Regulation of New Mobile Networks will be done of the basis of coverage and speed in relation to the population and to assist in the quick and effect build out of networks planning permission has been revised to allow replacement of old equipment with the latest without needing a new permit.

Can we have an evangelist from the Silicon designers who is capable of explaining why System on a Chip designs are a compromise whilst we await better batteries, how the new Wifi and Fixed Wireless Broadband standards will impact on the development of GSM standards and how at this moment there are no chips capable of covering all the available spectrum and thus Software Defined Radio is once again stalled. Will the industry representative also take a stick to the current trend towards smaller smartphones and point out that what is needed are designs that will get teens, blue collar and emerging markets doing more with mobiles?

Finally can Martin Sorrell talk about how marketing is killing mobile as only an idiot would expect advertising to generate the revenues needed to give someone a free phone. As we become more aware of the way data on our habits is sold what kind of fool would allow themselves to be ripped off? What Brand would coupon customers to such a level that they make no money, once to get someone in the shop fine but if you have to keep doing it then they are parasites not customers because they will never afford what you are selling. Effective marketing is about getting people with money to pay as much as possible for stuff, when they stops the business starts to die and finally goes bankrupt. Consumers use of mobile is different from fixed and so don't just think that it is a new media on which to send junk mail.

The above are my hopes, my expectation is that we will be talking about a few new handsets that will keep Android out in front of the iPhone, RIM still has not got what it takes to compete with Apple and Google and Nokia can still make great hardware. The GSMA will talk about m-Health being the next big market for mobile and Machine-2-Machine is going to be massive (it's not as big as they think because lots of smart-meters will use powerline technology rather than 3G) and look at the success of M-Banking.

Thinking about Mobile Handsets

Over the last few weeks I have been looking at upgrading the handsets of my three daughters and so have reviewed what is on the market and what they wish to do with there phones.

This will be the fourth handset that my Twins have owned. At the moment they are happy users of a Blackberry Bold which are starting to show signs of age. They are not heavy users of either text or voice but they use BBM and Facebook with a little email. They are thus happy with the QWERTY form factor and when asked if they wanted a Blackberry Touch they declined as the find the lack of keyboard slows them down. They are looking for something that is robust enough to live with the knocks of life in a teenage girl’s pocket and bag that means it has to bounce before it breaks.

The youngest wants her second mobile phone to have a few more features that the basic candy bar she currently has. She does not want an iPhone as “the girls who have one at school are bullies and they all seem to be broken within a few weeks.” I have been looking at a number of Android handsets but she seems to like the Nokia Lumina 800 I have been playing with because it does not look girlie, has a good camera and the battery lasts.

When you look at the shelves in a phone retailer at the moment if you take the Blackberries away what you see is a Smartphone format that is almost uniform. It reminds me of the mid 1990s just as the industry was about to under go massive expansion and all you could have was a black brick, then Nokia launched the 5110i with snap on covers and Motorola and Samsung decided that we might like silver clamshells.

Perhaps we can pause for breath on the development of Operating systems and start to look at form factors? For a number of years I have thought that mobile users are unlikely to carry just one mobile phone when they are able to purchase devices and looking at fellow travellers on the train it does now seem that time has come. Not everyone wishes to carry a device with a 3½ to 4½ inch screen as a phone, so why not have some devices that don’t have a touch screen but rather a simple keyboard?

The interesting thing is that none of the three seem to be demanding a wide range of Apps with which to “personalize” their handset. The number of people they “chat” with on Facebook is a subset of their “Friends” with whom they are social both in the real and virtual world. They do want a device that gives access to YouTube. A VPN which would give access to catch up TV from both the UK and US would be very welcomed. But if that was not available no problem as they can do so via Laptop or Tablet.

When it comes to an upgrade of my handset, something that I can quickly synchronise with my car, laptop and headset would make life easy. As I tend to use my phone whilst driving something with very good voice command would be welcomed. I would love to get rid of the touch screen as too often I put my current phone in my pocket after use and the discover that because it was still active I have played audio books, surfed the web and changed the keyboard, theme etc. . Over the last 14 months my favorite handset has been my Vertu Ascent because it does what I want it to do and when I need something I just use the Concierge service.

Sorry I have been quite

It has been some time since I have posted anything.

The reason is that I have become more and more frustrated with the fixation that the answer is the iPhone for all things that are wrong with the mobile phone market. Just as Motorola got it wrong with placing all its eggs in one basket trusting everything to Apple is flawed.

Those that ask, what about Android? Have to understand that Google is just another walled garden and it to is flawed for other reasons.

The fact that both of these handset developers see the future as about the power of the App store highlights the failure to understand the ecosystem that is the Mobile Phone Industry. Observe the clamour of Vodafone Shareholders looking for the fire sale of minority equity assets to see the bonfire of the vanities.

Google does not seem to understand the timeframes the Industry operates under.

Apple sees life in a binary format of winners and loser which risks seeing the foundations crumble under them. As a futurologist I read the tea leaves for Apple as potentially pulling out of the phone market. Recent developments with the iPad, iPod and Apple TV could all point to no iPhone6. If the App store was the answer look for the BBC News app on the OVI and ANDROID stores it will not be the same one developed by Fjord for the iPad.

Nokia have replaced the CEO as he was unable to develop a handset that would kill the iPhone. As Apple is a very small rival and the real fight is with Blackberry his focus was on the right place. Yes fire him because he did not stop the rise of RIM but not for the lack of a high end handset that fails to complement the ecosystem.

If you fail to understand the need to support the ecosystem what you face is failure of the infrastructure. If Vodafone cannot see a return on the investment for new base stations why are they going to build them?

Once Mobile Networks employed anthropologists and sociologists to understand customer needs and develop products. Now they live on Internet Time which works on open development with Darwinian evolution. Evolution is difficult when the search methodology is a top ten list rather than accurate indexation with a standard taxonomy.

This post is me letting off steam. I might come back and develop some of the observations above or I might lie in a dark room and listen to whale music.

Confussion over the Handset market

I know that we are in a quite period as the holiday season starts to end with one last public holiday before the children return to school but if you take both the Observer and The Sunday Times you might be a little confused as to the progress of Android.

The Observer reports that the iPhone faces a threat, whilst the Times tells us that Google is failing in the smartphone market.

This week I have been talking to a number of clients about the OS battle that is taking place in the mobile phones space. In preparation for a workshop on Smartphones OS I decided that I would put aside my opinion formed by being a user for the last twenty plus years and get one of everything and use them for a few weeks. So I have started carrying a small gadget bag with something others than Nikons in. As well as the Nokia E71 I have a G1, Apple 3G, Blackberry Storm and I still carry my Sony Ericsson C905i.

I do not think that the mobile industry is in a battle for one single OS but rather the current EIGHT competing OS will be consolidated down to just three.

Talking with others who use Smartphones has been interesting. One current iPhone users told me that he was going to pass on an upgrade of his iPhone to the 3GS but rather he was moving to an Android handset and upgrading to Paid Google Apps so that he could work on the Cloud. Another told me that he keeps being surprised by RIM and has noticed how many women are using one to surf and network with rather than an iPhone. The Nokia users cannot see why they should jump ship and are hopeful that the divergence into Linux and Windows devices are little more than a distraction.

I have noticed that my iPhone seems to prefer WiFi to the poor O2 network when ever I want to use facebook, twitter, Yahoo, Shozu. The experience is no different from my iPod Touch and thus if I have an iPod why do I need the Phone element because I'm not using the phone network and payment is taken via my iTunes account. I am now using pictures in Twitter but is that worth the expense?

I seem to be having problems with the Android App Store and Installing software like Opera. The mail client seems good but the browser needs work. For me the mixture of touch and QWERTY keyboard is a pain. Might be a better experience on Vodafone than it is on T-Mobile but I am underwhelmed at present.

The Storm is an interesting experience. The device has attracted a lot of attention from my teenage twins who would both love to find in their bag for the new school year. The messaging is excellent especially BB to BB user and Facebook and Twitter are as good as on the iPhone.

I am starting to get the hang of the E71 and Ovi alongside Google Apps does make it a productive device. The battery life is far better than that of the other smartphones however I still find that I need to switch to Opera to work as quickly as I can with either my PC or MacBook. In switching to Opera a number of sites ask we to "use the browser installed by the phone manufacturer" what is this 1999 all over again?

When I am off out for a walk with my camera what do I put in my pocket? It is still the C905i it has a better camera and the battery does not die on me. Should I need it I have GPS and Opera takes care of the browsing.

From conversations and observation I feel that RIM and Linux will be two of the three that are left standing the other one is any ones guess. Mr Jobs has been at the phone thing for two years now and he still has not hit the target he set himself for sales outside of the US. If he were to launch the tablet / iPod Touch MAX and it was a success would he kill the iPhone? Most people I observe when I travel seem to have two mobile phones and they carry these in a bag rather than in a pocket and so a larger form factor will not be an issue providing that it is A5 in size rather than A4.

What ever handset OS wins the distribution model will have to change. Two year contracts will see handsets looking like they have been cared for by Vandals if my Twins handsets are anything to go by. One friend has changed his iPhone five times in the last year as it was starting to look used and the Apple Store guys let him. What is need is more Handset Vendor stores so that some may buy a handset and then buy connectivity separately. After all we know that the guy in Carphone Warehouse is not going to give us the best deal.

Innovation in Mobile .....

...if the things outlined in the Independent today are the best that the mobile industry can come up with can you stop the Bus I want to get off!

Whilst I agree that the Mobile is becoming more and more a Remote for life I would hope that the Executives within the Networks at this time are focusing on the Quality of the Service rather than the Technology and User Interface. In talking to the Normal User one of the biggest demands they have with the new handsets is that the battery lasts just like it did the that Black & White Nokia that we only charged on a Sunday. Once they realise that using data services resulted in no phone after lunch they stop using data!

Talking to those who are excellent in segmentation and targeted marketing speak about just how bad the Networks are at Communicating. For Example, If I have been a contract customers with your network for 8 years and every time I have upgraded my handset I have selected a Nokia what makes you thing that you can sell me a Samsung? Tesco's know that if I am a Pepsi drinker I will not switch to Coke so they incentivise me to buy expensive cans rather than cheap bottles. When then don't the Networks use some of the data locked in the billing system about me to try and increase my user behaviour rather than get me to try something new?

Most people feel that the Customer Service Experience when it comes to a Mobile Network is something a kin to an Estate Agent or Dentist rather than Rolls Royce. Orange last year told those in the UK that it understood their pain and would move call centres back to the UK. As an Orange consumer I see no improvement to my care, since they have become French I no longer get calls to ask what can be done to improve my experience or reduce my bill.

As a consumer I have FIVE UK sims for my personal use and we have three others in the house that Orange know about as they are topped up from my Contract. Orange know about on half of the Sims I own, they have not attempted to cross sell Broadband (Fixed or Mobile). Thus I have to question what value they place on me as a customer?

The reason that I do not use a Single Network is because the Coverage I have at present is erratic at best. It is not a question of budget to build in the case of the Provider but rather planning permission to build new cell sites. Having been involved in Fixed Mobile Convergence I know that using GSM & WiFi = Reduced Battery Life so I want a system that is GSM. I also know that the audio quality of the GSM network could be enhanced and for someone who is a heavy voice user that is an innovation that would increase useage.

If you are interested in a Universal Remote Control rather than download apps from the iStore onto you iPhone switch to a RIM and sign up for Unify4life.

Mobile Zeitgeist

Sitting and thinking over the Christmas Holidays I took the opportunity to consider the state of the Mobile Industry.  Following my post asking for a Leader to step forward and create an Ecosystem that benefits all a few asked the question was Mobile a single entity or was it a number of Industries?

Whilst I agree that at present what we see might be more a kin to a medieval Britain in that what is seen are a number of waring fiefdoms I have to say that after some twenty years we might be reaching a degree of maturity that sees those that run Networks, Handset Vendors, Chip Makers, Equipment Manufactures and Regulators starting to take a rounded view that looks at the relationships between all that makes up the Mobile Industry.  As we enter difficult economic times to maintain the present position let alone move forward Leaders and Managers understand that it will require cooperation as well as innovation if mobile is to maintain its historic share of the wallet.

On a simple level I look at the talent in the industry and ask is the average IQ of those working in Mobile rising, falling or about the same as it was at the start of 2006?  Are those that are joining Mobile brighter than those that we coming into mobile in 2000 or below the standard of those joining in 2002?  At present I have to say that those I see starting a career in Mobile are not as smart as they were ten years ago when it was an exciting place.  A lot of those that joined Mobile at the time of the 3G auctions have moved onto the next hot trend, which might be philanthropic commerce in Africa and South East Asia judging by the updates of friends on LinkedIn! One of the issues that I have with those that have joined the sector is that they do not seem to have the drive that the previous entrants had to understand the history of Mobile so that can avoid the errors of the pioneers.  It might be a function of becoming Middle Aged but the current Youth do not seem to want to undertake any form of education but rather seek training so that they can perform the day to day duties of their role.

A review of the Networks sees that in Mature markets size is a good thing as consolidation sees those operating national networks seeking to become more International to share infrastructure in what looks like an old fashioned arms race.  The race seems to be one of speed as capacity fills they are looking at merging towers.  With an eye on costs all CEOs are looking at what can be undertaken to maintain profits are revenues fall.  Rationalisation in the sales channel means that no longer are the Networks prepared to speed money on acquisition but rather wish to reward loyalty. The Brave CEO  whilst cutting cost will also invest in CRM tools that improve knowledge. In the Emerging Market the CEO is faced with far greater challenges in that most of his customers have a limited budget that sees them using his network for less that 6 days a month.  The interesting thing is that the Emerging Market CEO is far more attuned to his customers needs and incentivised to insure that they have network coverage and customer service.

There is no dought that at present it is the Handset guys who are feeling the downturn the most.  The interesting element seems to be that the activity is speeding the end of life for a number of 2G handsets rather than the stalling of development.  In a recent presentation I talked about the move towards a number of standard Operating Systems in an effort to limit the cost and time of introducing handsets onto a network (just look at the pain RIM are feeling with the launch of Bold).  I see that we will have one form of Symbian (Nokia S60), LiMo and one from Windows Mobile, RIM, Apple.  Symbian’s new business model has seen the death of UIQ and the new license agreement means that Nokia have no reason to cut down is premium software stack to save money.  Whilst Android looks like a better opportunity than developing for Apple it is still a closed system that has the Networks concerned that Google is more an Enemy than a Friend.  I am sure that by the end of 2009  we will see more  devices available  on the Android platform than  iPhones but cost might be an issue should the networks decide not to  subsidise the cost of those handset.

In the Chip business it is the lag with the handset makers that will effect most and the question is who is prepared to maintain Engineers in the current market?  Those that offer simple solutions such as CSR will be the most effected and survival will mean that they need to find a bigger firm to buy them.  Those that produce chips for industries other than mobile will find themselves squeezed as costs do not match revenues.  All these facts mean good news for Qualcomm and I think that more will license the ARM Instruction set and develop chips capable of matching the speed and capacity available in today’s mobile network.

Equipment Makers face an interesting year with 3G spectrum auctioned in  India and China offering the opportunity and threat.  The staged roll out of Mobile Broadband offers opportunity to sell volume but with a limited margins.  The risk for Equipment Makers is that the Networks scale back the roll out of HSUPA and HSDP+ as revenues fail to kick in.  Looking at the future, this year we will see LTE finalise.  Losers are likely to be Nortel, Motorola and Alcatel Lucent who bet too much on WiMAX.  Ericsson and NSN will suffer as the Chinese buy market share.  Huawei will continue to impress the Networks with the quality and speed of its Engineers.

At this moment I do not think that the Industry is in terminal decline, but it is getting smaller.  I would like to believe that those in charge of the various stakeholders have the knowledge to insure that the decline is limited in terms of time and effect. Looking at the progress in America over the last year the launch of mobile banking shows that a federated approach benefits everyone.  

iPhone 2.0 a stepping stone not Nirvana

So one week into iPhone 2.0 and what do I think so far?

The device is owned by four friends so far. Another few have said that they would upgrade to one after the summer holidays once others have smoothed out the bugs for them.

Would I get a iPhone or am I waiting for a Sony Ericsson Xperia X1 which should be available in September?

I think that I will pass on the iPhone at present. I was lucky enough to be given a 32GB iTouch which I have upgraded to 2.0 and so am able to share in some of the excitement of the App Store. I would have issues with the iPhone on battery life and my big fat falanges make text input a bind. I also am finding Mobile Me a little light of functions compared even to the SE Phone Suite when it copmes to moving data between laptop and device.

The App Store is interesting and I wonder how long before we might see similar on the Operator Portals for ALL handsets. Russell Beattie points out that it is not something thought up by Apple but rather borrowed from Qualcomm who developed it for the Brew Platform.

I am still to be convinced that Mr Jobs is committed to the Mobile Phone market. You only have to look at the present pain felt by others to ask if he has the endurance? The iPhone has not broken the market for Mobile, Apple have learnt just as Nokia did that the Networks are still key in any relationship with the user thanks to the billing relationship reather than coverage. Whilst we see statistics that show a significant number of users of mobile data services none yet say that for any particular service they are exclusive users of the service! Thus Apple are doing things better than others but it is still the same user activity if different experience.

I might become more conviced about the iPhone if I could discover more than one form factor. When it comes to iPods I am give a choice not just in terms of storeage but also in terms of form factor with the Shuffle, Nano, Classic and iTouch but when one looks at the iPhone you get two coloure and two sizes! Not exactaly a wide range, even compared to RIM for example.

I am sure that now we have a 3G iPhone we can expect to see more people using one. A number of committed MAC fans will now be ready to own one, dispite having to downgrade the quality of their camera. I am confident that in those markets where the Consumer has choice we will see even better penetration. I guess we will have to wait until we have iPhone 3.0 before we can say if this was a fad or a serious player in the game?