GSMA Mobile World Congress 2015

So today the Mobile World Congress officially opened in Barcelona and I fear that it's days are numbered as an event because the Circus that is the exhibition is now too big and the Conference of little relevance to the Mobile Network Operators who make up the GSMA. For many MWC15 started on Sunday with a number of handset makers holding Press Events to launch new devices.

The GSMA in an effort to raise funds has grown the exhibition event to a size that it is no longer controllable.  Yet it has failed to attract the likes of Apple to attend either to exhibitor or talk at the conference. Every year the GSMA attempts to set the agenda and fails, it leaves me feeling disappointed and questions just what datapoints they select in an effort to predict the future.  This year they are focusing on the Internet of Things which I have to ask just what does that have to do with Mobile Networks over the next 5 years?

Just before Telecoms World collapsed we saw Internet Firms descend on Switzerland spending $1M+ on stands getting all the attention rather than presentations on the Conference stage.  I fear that we are witnessing the same with MWC.  At the end of this week I am sure that the GSMA will announce ever more visitors attended, more press attended and the whole thing was a success.  I think I will say that the event has become somewhat like a Conservative Party Conference all be it on a large scale. We took a trip to the seaside to walk around a massive soulless space and feel that we are close to the powerful only to discover that we have no influence let alone power to shape the future!  

GSMA World 2014 in Barcelona, time to end the show?

The global get together that is GSMA World rolls into Barcelona this week and I am left with the feeling that as with Telecoms World before it no longer fits a purpose. At the hight of the Dot.Com bubble Telecoms World was THE trade show for the fixed telecoms world, $1M+ was spent by firms on the production of stands; it was such a success that the ITU build a new space for the next show, unfortunately that new space had tumble weed rolling through it and the ITU has become a zombie.

In past years GSMA World was an important conference that happened to have an exhibition attached.  It was something that you had to attend if you wanted to achieve or be recognised in the Mobile Industry. Over the course of a week it was possible to meet all the important players in the industry and get a real feel for what was going to happen for the coming year. That is no longer the case.

At this years conference the GSMA has decided that the Keynote speakers should be Facebook and IBM rather than the CEOs of Vodafone, Ericsson or Huawei.  In the past we have listened to the future as outlined by charismatic leaders and disruptors such as Richard Branson and Hans Snook who were upstaged by the likes of Douglas Adams. This year the line up is such that many very senior executives whilst in town will not be at the show; rather they will stay close to the Arts Hotel to network and lobby.

As for the exhibition, well the security will rival that of the airport and it is of a size to rival CeBIT next month in Hanover.  It is unlikely that we are going to see anything of mind blowing innovation or design because now they are revealed elsewhere at times more suited to consumer demand and/or the news cycle.

The cost and the scale of GSMA World Congress does mean that a number of those on the edge of the mobile ecosystem will not be in attendance. I have a number of conference calls after the show finishes with people who will not be in attendance but what to confirm that in missing Barcelona they have not missed out. If they are right even fewer decision makers will attend in 2015 and the were are faced with a downward spiral rather than an upward curve.

The media reporting on World Congress are unlikely to report that the Emperor stands before them unclothed as they enjoy a comfortable time with plenty of chances to party on a PR firms credit card. So whilst the SWAG on offer has declined the good times roll providing that you work for the right media.  A number of Industry Analysts are not attending as they have not been able to find sponsors willing to pick up the tab and so will be stuck at home.

The GSMA missed the fact that Mobile's focus had shifted from Europe to West Cost America with the rise of 3G. As 4G starts to become mainstream in the developed world and 3G is deployed on a Global basis it needs to become relevant again.  The Executives leading the day to day operations have to understand that they are working for a trade association that is about the Mobile Networks, Equipment Manufactures and those that support them, it is not about the software companies that are marketing to consumers whilst making little or no investment in the infrastructure.

I would be happy to see Facebook and WhatsAp CEO's booed and hackled at their keynotes rather than applauded as this would demonstrate that the GSMA was still relevant and represented it's members.    

What I'd like to hear in Barcelona next week

Have been thinking about the upcoming MWC2012 and rather than looking at what shinny new handsets will be shown and how the GSMA will be "helping" the industry move forwards through strategic alliances I have written a wish list of what would help the mobile industry move forward.

As we make major strides toward the fourth generation of mobile networks I would like to see the head of Ericsson lead the industry forwards with an honest assessment of the current state of deployment of 2G, 3G and 4G networks what they are capable of doing and how they need to be melded together to deliver quality of service and best speed possible. The need for better chip design and roadmap to LTE terminals capable of using the high-speed network. What networks need to do to match services with capability.

I want the CTO of a Major Mobile Network to stand up and talk about Security, Security, Security as the cornerstone for the business if we are to move towards cloud based services and leave behind the world of Apps. I am looking for a CTO who can tell me how his Network is secure, my Device is secure and finally my Data is secure. Once he can tell that all three are secure then we can start to talk about the quality of the network in terms of bandwidth and coverage to enable me to do stuff via the Cloud rather than solid state.

I would like a Politician to start talking about how the consumer needs to pay for the use of the resources they consume, how spectrum is a key resource and in an effort to stop people wasting it people need to understand the present model of billing is no longer fit for purpose. In an effort to aid the consumer his Government has stopped selling spectrum but rather is now licensing blocks to Networks and the effectively regulating them for poor services, once the network is built and running effectively they intend to tax the Networks on profits made. The Regulation of New Mobile Networks will be done of the basis of coverage and speed in relation to the population and to assist in the quick and effect build out of networks planning permission has been revised to allow replacement of old equipment with the latest without needing a new permit.

Can we have an evangelist from the Silicon designers who is capable of explaining why System on a Chip designs are a compromise whilst we await better batteries, how the new Wifi and Fixed Wireless Broadband standards will impact on the development of GSM standards and how at this moment there are no chips capable of covering all the available spectrum and thus Software Defined Radio is once again stalled. Will the industry representative also take a stick to the current trend towards smaller smartphones and point out that what is needed are designs that will get teens, blue collar and emerging markets doing more with mobiles?

Finally can Martin Sorrell talk about how marketing is killing mobile as only an idiot would expect advertising to generate the revenues needed to give someone a free phone. As we become more aware of the way data on our habits is sold what kind of fool would allow themselves to be ripped off? What Brand would coupon customers to such a level that they make no money, once to get someone in the shop fine but if you have to keep doing it then they are parasites not customers because they will never afford what you are selling. Effective marketing is about getting people with money to pay as much as possible for stuff, when they stops the business starts to die and finally goes bankrupt. Consumers use of mobile is different from fixed and so don't just think that it is a new media on which to send junk mail.

The above are my hopes, my expectation is that we will be talking about a few new handsets that will keep Android out in front of the iPhone, RIM still has not got what it takes to compete with Apple and Google and Nokia can still make great hardware. The GSMA will talk about m-Health being the next big market for mobile and Machine-2-Machine is going to be massive (it's not as big as they think because lots of smart-meters will use powerline technology rather than 3G) and look at the success of M-Banking.

Where are the crowds?

So the first day of Mobile World Congress is over and the two photos show that this year the show is slower than in the past.  Taken from the first floor of the Nokia stand at 11:00 where last year we would have seen a cloud to match that of a Milan derby this year it looks like Bolton v Portsmouth.

The second photo shows the main meeting zone at noon.  

Talking to some who are working for vendors at the show and they talk about having to work on the stand as headcount has been cut to less than half of what we saw in 2008.

Whilst I like the extra room I have to ask if it is good business for the organisers.  Effectively the show is paid for by the Vendors who hope to meet customers from the networks.  If the Networks are not sending the staff then the Vendors will have to ask if the investment is worth it.

Talking to one small company I discovered that they were spending €200K on attending MWC.  They will need to see €2M worth of sales to say that the trip was worthwhile.  This just goes to show that in these financial times some parties have to come to an end and hard cash needs to work.

Waiting for the show to start

Left with plenty of time to get through the hords of people for the start of MWC09 only to discover no que.

Walking to my first meeting and I see that the number of of adverts inside the show ground are less and smaller than last year.

This is going to be an interesting few days and first impressions are that we are on for a scaled down event. The vib does not seem to be the same as with any of the others that I have attended in Barcelona.

Expectations for MWC09

So next week we have the global event that is Mobile World Congress in Barcelona my daughters asked what happens.  Over the next hour I tried to explain that far from a holiday the week in Barcelona will be hard work with a number of meetings.

Starting from Sunday afternoon through to Wednesday night I will meet with 37 different Organisations who want to talk about Mobile Banking, Next Generation Networks and Voice services.  I will not be sitting in one place entertaining visitors but rather I will be walking from one meeting to the next.  The good news is that I will be well exercised.

Talking with others in the Mobile industry some are giving Barcelona a pass this year stating budget and time issues so hopefully it will be less crowded. The flow of press releases so far talk about  Mobile Broadband, WiMAX deployment in Emerging Markets and Handset manufacturers offering Application Stores. Party invites are thin on the ground compared with previous years and journalists are talking about the lack of sponsorship so it might be that a touch of realism has set in.

With 4 Billion users of Mobile the industry is indeed larger than any predicted 10 years ago.  However the development of Smartphones and Mobile Broadband seem to have lead many down a blind alley. If Networks are to invest in greater speed and bandwidth why should that network be Open? If Networks want to turn infrastructure into low cost access points why would Equipment manufacturers innovate? I am always interested in how others use Mobile when I travel and hope that a trip to Spain might act as a wake up call for those in Northern Europe who see Smart as the future. With Networks having to fight to keep customers the investment has to be made not in new gadgets but rather processes.

I will be posting next week but I hope that MWC09 will not be a disappointment I am hoping that we might see the start of an ecosystem that sees everyone trying to evolve mobile.    

Final Thoughts on Barcelona

OK my time spent walking from Hall to Hall to have meetings and look at the latest trends is over. If I had taken all the papers pushed at me then I think that the excess baggage charge could be more than the price of my seat on the flight home. In a digital age this seems wrong, some have been smart enough to have added the handouts to the free memory sticks that they hand out this would also allow for links to web pages and the use of video and audio. I guess once those who are part of the Mobile ecosystem start to think in this way then we can speak about mobile being media companies until then they will have to stick at being technologists.

I think that the GSMA may have reached a tipping point in that the World congress is too big for Barcelona. In the early days in France you had a dynamic feel and deals were done in small cafe and one boats. Now you have a massive exhibition with a small conference supported by global suppliers running briefings, but too many people told me that in the next few weeks they were taking customers to Dubai to close a deal. Eventually the big guys are going to move the World Congress to Dubai so that they can talk with the Emerging Markets Customers. Whilst we saw a lot of Chinese attendees to the event I did not see many Indians or Africans and as Orascom's CEO told everyone if you do not address the Emerging Markets then you are not going to be about for long.

My themes from this years show were Coverage, Services and Future. The GSM world has been such a success because it is a vibrant ecosystem.

When I started working in Cellular Communications some 20 plus years ago we spoke about Talking to a person rather than a place. Today we are saying that mobile is about communicating with potentially everything simply and wirelessly. However great that sounds I have to ask if everyone has the same objective? To demonstrate the point today I received a new wireless printer by Lexmark and they have placed a USB cable in the box so that I can connected it with my computer to get things started, this is something they do not do with the wired printers, as I know to my cost and it is not a great inditement of wireless technology!


At the Limo launch event I attended we were treated to a talk by Dr Marty Cooper who explained who mobile was evolving and thanks to Open Standards such as Linux the cost of devices was falling to a level where all could expect to enjoy the benefits of Wireless Broadband and a device that you held in the hand would offer mass communication. Perhaps Dr Cooper needs to travel a little wider? Sony Ericsson handsets for India have to have AM radio so that the owners can listen to cricket because the FM network does not cover a wide enough region. Just how 4G will reach users that are yet to experience 1G is beyond me. I also do not think that the medical technology that he spoke of will have the scale to make it mass market. Some of the issues that we face in the mass market can be seen with the Social Business models. People do not want charity they just want a fair chance. Thus they are unlikely to accept something that we market as a poor man's phones as they aspire to be better. One of the Executives I spoke to told me of the difficulties he is having in India. In talking to a large FMCG company about a handset that would do all the business tasks they needed he discovered that the cost became an issue as it was the same a three months wages. "However in Bombay I see young guys riding a bike and using an E90 as they want to seem a success as our phone is cheaper than a car and gives the same status!" he said he frustration.

When it comes to the network on which we use mobiles we are seeing some interesting developments with LTE some seven years out from what will be commercial launch. OFDM gives the best bang for buck in terms of bandwidth, the metropolitan wifi networks show that mesh networks using wifi are not going to work and so broadband wireless will be either WiMAX or LTE. Looking at the size of demand the legacy element makes LTE the standard for those that already own mobile assets. The support for LTE by Networks across the globe means that now we can start to ask ITU to move forward with setting the standards and building trails.

This year they move the content providers to their own hall which shows that more people are trying to get media onto mobiles. But before you expect to watch video and network in real life with those that you have shaken hands with on Facebook/Bebo/MySpace et al you have to realise that the GSMA stuck them in a Hall that was away from the main group of halls. If content was import it would have been given Hall 2 or 1 the handset guys are still the main bankers for the event as demonstrated by the amount of people in Hall 8. I am still not an advocate for mobile data because I always find the experience somewhat similar to watching HD TV on a black and white screen, i.e. a disappointment. For mobile data to work what you need to do is significantly improve the handset screens and the coverage of the mobile networks data networks. Until that happens then the key data activities on a handset will be text based communication be that SMS/E-Mail/IM dependent on the market. None of these usages should happen when you are moving at a speed, especially if you are supposed to be in control of an car.

The introduction of RFiD to handsets means that a number of new banking services could be launched in developed markets. Germany looks like it will be an interesting place to be at the end of the year with a number of trials following on from the Vodafone and the German Train service.

Day Two @ MWC

Second day walking the halls, catching up with friends and being introduced to new ones.

Managed to gain more knowledge as to what the next generation of mobile might look like and what it may be used for. The battle for 4G has already started as people in committee rooms discus just what is possible and how it may be deployed. The new standard for wireless looks like it will be something that is used more in laptops than in phones to start with. This will be a battle between the mobile players and Intel as to what is used in laptops alongside WiFi. I still have to ask if the dash to a business model that becomes based on Data is something that the Networks will do? But the evidence that in 2009 Vodafone will have a commercial network that is faster than the fibre at a cost to build a lot less than the £50/metre that fibre will cost means that if the in-building coverage can be resolved then 4G might just have a business case.

Have managed to continue my discovery of just what might play out in Mobile Banking by talking to a number of players and the issue seems to be a lack of trust between the Banks and Networks. Stored Value services provided by trusted third parties offer solutions for the Pre-paid sector but this not exactly high value transactions! Perhaps as Banks release message based services that are two way rather than alerts then we can look at some of faster deployments of payment programs. Edgar Dunn have written a report for the GSMA that explains that the development of M-Banking is a headline strategic play for Mobile Networks. Are these the same networks that said that the do not need third parties as they hold the billing relationships? Whilst the developers continue to be small players rather than significant organisations such as HP, IBM and Accenture who work in both the Mobile and Banking space then the M-Wallet risks looking SubPrime for some time to come.

Rounded off the day with a relaxed dinner with a small bunch brought together by Simon Rockman. Good to catch up with a few old friends and make some new ones. One more day of meetings and then a late night flight back to the UK to digest and edit all the information gained into something that might be useful and see me gainfully employed for the coming months.