Looking around the European Mobile Network Operators I fear that 5G
will follow a similar path to that travelled by 3G.
In too many meetings it is obvious that those at the top of the
organisation do not have a significant understanding of the details.
Those with the knowledge do not have the authority to make decisions.
The gap between these two groups is to wide for it to be easily closed.
The race to launch and the nebulous use case for 5G means that we
are going to enter into a marketing war between companies whose
customers see them as less relevant than the handset manufacturers.
This is because they fail to grasp the simple fact that for the majority
of smartphone users they might be wireless but not exactly mobile,
thus they value good quality WiFi over 4G or 5G.
Operators will need to build infrastructure more suited to demand rather
than the current model and adopt a new pricing structure that is not
tied to handset hire purchasing as the underlying driver. This requires
executives and senior management that have a keen eye for detail and
are conversant not only with their own proposition that also rivals.
Without that they will be doomed to failure. In every European market
there is overcapacity and as with fibre providers at the height of the dot
com era some are destined for collapse into bankruptcy.
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