"One cannot judge the value of opinion simply by the amount of courage that is required in holding it," wrote George Orwell to Evelyn Waugh

The last few months public promotion of 5G by Ben Wood and his colleagues at CCS Insight have caused me to question my sanity. Have I lost my faculties or has Ben been bought as a "Social Media Influencer" by EE? Today's activity around the launch of 5G by EE has caused me to conclude that he has been bough lock, stock and barrel by BT and he should tag his posts as paid promotion. In Financial Services his approach would be called in for review and it should not be different in the telecoms world.

Clear advantages to #5G if you want to download an album on @Spotify in "very high" quality. Here's a 4G vs 5G comparison on @Qualcomm powered @OnePlus 6T (4G) vs @OnePlus 7 Pro 5G. Hard not to be impressed by the @EE 5G network. #5GEE (test conducted in #Cardiff) pic.twitter.com/iceFy5Zkqm

— Ben Wood (@benwood) May 30, 2019

I've been using the @EE #5G network in London and Cardiff over the last few days with the @OnePlus 7 Pro 5G. When in 5G coverage I'm consistently getting 200Mbps to 400Mbps with the fastest speed peaking at around 700Mbps. #5GEE pic.twitter.com/DXdfgtY3iQ

— Ben Wood (@benwood) May 30, 2019

Wow. #Stormzy live (and live steamed over 5G) on The Thames in the shadow of @TowerBridge for the launch of @EE #5G network in the UK. #5GEE @bt_uk pic.twitter.com/L1vZIIS9nx

— Ben Wood (@benwood) May 29, 2019

Here's @EE's 5G smartphone line-up: @SamsungMobile's #GalaxyS10 5G, @Oppo Reno 5G, @OnePlus 7 Pro 5G and @LG V50 ThinQ 5G with Dual Screen accessory. #5GEE pic.twitter.com/fNRxb5iSxt

— Ben Wood (@benwood) May 26, 2019

I would expect a first year GCSE Economics student to provide better coverage than Ben is currently doing as they would offer some balance and critical thinking about the recently launched 5G handsets and the launch services Mobile Networks are promoting in launching 5G. The issue is that Ben Wood has spent twenty years developing a brand and networking so that at the moment he is frequently quoted in the media. Some of this is that CEO's of Networks and Equipment Manufacturers are not as vocal as they were and so Journalists pressed for time to create a "package" seek out Ben for easy quotes.

EE are first to market with 5G in the UK, but not in Europe, they are less than a week ahead of Vodafone in launching and have chosen a network strategy that will require more base stations but not necessarily more capacity than Vodafone by the year end. The first subscribers for 5G are unlikely to have connected to the network for more than 15% of their usage by the end of the contract in TWO years. The "leadership" that EE claim to have established in the launch of 4G was such that if left it's then Parents seeking an exit from the UK and accepting a financial loss when sold to BT for equity alongside cash. BT was first to market with the launch of 1G, it had a property portfolio that meant that every base station needed up to 2000 could sit on it's estate rather than deal with third party landlords. Yet by 2000 it had been overtaken by Vodafone AND Orange in terms of leadership and had put Cellnet up for sale.

Thus the launch marketing for 5G by EE can be described as "brave" given the overwhelming demographic of BT's customer base and the very early stage we are in for 5G in terms of business case for consumers adopting the new service. For Ben Wood to take the optimistic view that EE are right to dash forward with a strategy he called "build it and they will come" requires a naivety greater than "the eternal sunshine of the spotless mind". 

Just how can one value Vodafone shares?

The business section of the Sunday Times once again gets me scratching my head about City valuations.

It is early days in the stewardship of Nick Read as CEO and it will be years before we discover if he was more like Arun Sarin than Vittorio Colao. Yet he is in control of an International Telecoms business that is far better placed than BT. Vodafone has stated that it's plan's for 5G mobile is focused on a slow and stead deployment rather than a race to be first. It does not have the issues that Three and Telefonica face in terms of access to capital to fund the building of infrastructure. It has the scale to be able to get not just better prices but also better service from its suppliers.

Why it is wrong to talk about 5G as if it is a race

Looking at a lot of the coverage this year about the Mobile Network Operator's plans to launch 5G services and they are framed a winning the race to 5G, the prizes for those that are first. This is at best simplistic in the extreme; it frames the argument in a metaphor that is simply WRONG.

Is everyone starting in the same place?

Are the covering the same distance? 

Will the encounter the same hurdles?

Are the subject to the same rules and arbitration?

What is the mythical prize that the winner might expect?  

Might the effort to complete the marathon of launching 5G result in the same outcome as the ancient greek who was the first to run the distance, and the victor expires on crossing the finish line?  

Here in Britain EE was seen as the "winner" in the "race" for 4G. It was such a success that three of the four mobile networks were fighting one another to be rescued by BT when it was looking to buy it's way back into the mobile space. The margin of victory was so slim that the General Public were unable to see it. This has to be the definition of a Pyrrhic victory!

The Mobile Network Operators cannot afford to make the mistakes they did with the launch of 3G and 4G over the past 15 years if they are to survive and deliver on the prospects that 5G is supposed to offer. Thus they themselves need to close down the use of the phrase "race to 5G" and reset expectations that this is not just another G rather it is a step change in what is possible and over time data connections will have improved that life will be different in ways that at present cannot be envisaged.