Are we damed to make the same mistakes with 5G as we did with 3G?

Looking around the European Mobile Network Operators I fear that 5G

 will follow a similar path to that travelled by 3G.

In too many meetings it is obvious that those at the top of the 

organisation do not  have a significant understanding of the details. 

Those with the knowledge do not have the authority to make decisions.

 The gap between these two groups is to wide for it to be easily closed.

The race to launch and the nebulous use case for 5G means that we 

are going to enter into a marketing war between companies whose 

customers see them as less relevant than the handset manufacturers. 

This is because they fail to grasp the  simple fact that for the majority 

of smartphone users they might be wireless but not exactly mobile, 

thus they value good quality WiFi over 4G or 5G.

Operators will need to build infrastructure more suited to demand rather

 than the  current model and adopt a new pricing structure that is not 

tied to handset hire purchasing as the underlying driver. This requires 

executives and senior management that have a keen eye for detail and 

are conversant not only with their own  proposition that also rivals. 

Without that they will be doomed to failure. In every European market 

there is overcapacity and as with fibre providers at the height of the dot 

com era some are destined for collapse into bankruptcy. 

Why it is wrong to talk about 5G as if it is a race

Looking at a lot of the coverage this year about the Mobile Network Operator's plans to launch 5G services and they are framed a winning the race to 5G, the prizes for those that are first. This is at best simplistic in the extreme; it frames the argument in a metaphor that is simply WRONG.

Is everyone starting in the same place?

Are the covering the same distance? 

Will the encounter the same hurdles?

Are the subject to the same rules and arbitration?

What is the mythical prize that the winner might expect?  

Might the effort to complete the marathon of launching 5G result in the same outcome as the ancient greek who was the first to run the distance, and the victor expires on crossing the finish line?  

Here in Britain EE was seen as the "winner" in the "race" for 4G. It was such a success that three of the four mobile networks were fighting one another to be rescued by BT when it was looking to buy it's way back into the mobile space. The margin of victory was so slim that the General Public were unable to see it. This has to be the definition of a Pyrrhic victory!

The Mobile Network Operators cannot afford to make the mistakes they did with the launch of 3G and 4G over the past 15 years if they are to survive and deliver on the prospects that 5G is supposed to offer. Thus they themselves need to close down the use of the phrase "race to 5G" and reset expectations that this is not just another G rather it is a step change in what is possible and over time data connections will have improved that life will be different in ways that at present cannot be envisaged.      

Think outside the box

Conversations since the return to work seem to focus on the presumption that the answer is Apps when it comes to mobile.

I fear that those I am speaking to are extremely short sited and need them to starting thinking about the end of the current smartphone OS ecosystems.  I think that more individuals are removing Apps from devices than adding them and too many new apps are clones rather than innovative. As 4G coverages becomes more widespread we have an opportunity to change the current power structures.  But this is only possible if those in the Mobile space change their mindset.

So BT have finalised a deal for EE

We woke this morning to the news that BT had agreed terms to acquire EE.  I have to say that if feels that I am in some strange fantasy world rather than one that understands the massive risk such a deal is.

Those that make a living as public analysts have all been very quick to jump on the bandwagon that this is wonderful news.  I feel somewhat differently.

If I were a shareholder in Orange I have to ask just how owning shares in BT is going to fund purchases in France aimed at consolidation?  It is also difficult to see how DT can say it got a fair price for finally exiting the UK mobile market (they bought One-2-One for £8.4bn).

But lets look at just what BT have bought and how they are unlikely to be able to execute an strategy that offers a return on the investment.

BT back in the retail game.

Part of the "prize" for BT is the fact that they will take over the stores of EE and thus have a presence on the High Street through which they can upsell other services.  BT used to have retail stores that they closed because they could not make them work.  I do not think that they have significantly changed so that they can offer a presence where you can talk people into Quad play services. If they can sell Quad play then it will be on the basis of discounting rather than quality.  

What can BT do will all the 4G Spectrum?

In the 4G auctions BT purchased spectrum that it was going to used for fixed mobile services and now has spectrum refarmed and purchase by EE.  The regulator will have demands about forfeiture of some of the Spectrum. Whilst divisions other than BT Retail will have requirements for Mobile Spectrum of its own, can these be met by the new holding?

BT's ability to invest in Fibre

If BT can find the money to buy a Mobile asset then why can't it find the money to better roll out Fibre Broadband, is likely to be the simplistic view of politicians.  Thus demand that BT deals speedily in building out Fibre to the 50% of households not covered by Virgin's footprint will increase.  Alongside the calls for faster upgrades to the Fibre estate will be demands that they wholesale access prices fall.

Talent blackhole when it comes to Mobile

BT does not have the Executive experience required to manage a Mobile Operation and the Management at EE is unlikely to want to work for BT.  This means that once the deal closes they will face a mass exit of know how just at a time that they need to up skill. If they wish to stop that then they will be over paying, if they don't then they will discover just how complex managing the build and maintenance of a Mobile Network is.

Everything just got a lot more expensive for BT

Anyone with something to sell to BT has just seen that they are happy to pay top prices.  So in order to close any significant move they will discover that the price has just risen by 15-20%.  If they can spend £12.5bn for EE they must have the money for ...

BT Executives are in my experience very far from reality.  They might feel that they are offering the consumer an enhanced product range that they should be happy to pay for.  The reality is that for the last fifteen years telecommunications has been a commodity that the user demands at an ever decreasing price.  Look at the UK retail space and you see a blood bath, experienced hands like Tesco, M&S and Topshop are hurting an BT thinks that they can be successful. BT adverts for Broadband services may win awards and get people talking but they do not seem to get people signing up for service.  If you pay out £12.5bn how long can you offer BT Sport free of charge to your Consumers? What will the price be and how many will pay it?

Rather than telling the CEO and Chairman that they have struck an excellent deal if I would a significant shareholder I would be selling off my holding as it is unlikely that I will see an increase in dividends from helping Germany and France exit the UK Mobile market.

Questions Raised

Over the last few months my work projects have seen some recurring observations develop into points of interest.  I am not sure where the answers are, I am not even sure that people are making the same observations let alone crafting solutions. I thought that I would hang a few of the observations out and see if people want to respond.

So if I am using multiple devices, why can't I share "history" across them? I don't want just the synchronise my end points rather I want to map the footsteps that I travelled in getting from A to B.  Thus this is not a synchronisation problem rather it is about replication. Who can I trust to store and retrieve these journeys?

If it is about the software are we getting to a point when the hardware doesn't need to be replaced so frequently? With hardware now priced a $600+ for a premium device why can't I get it built to order and so specify what I want? If that happens then the Mobile Networks need to change their business model as they are no longer financing the device rather they are facilitating connectivity!

If you look back at the history of 3G technology you discover what we saw at launch phase quickly changed as customers declined to take the product served up by the Mobile Networks.  It was only once 3G had become established that Apple entered the market and disrupted the whole industry. The current generation was launch two years ago in two years time it should be established enough for someone to enter the market and disrupt it once again. The speed and quality of the data connection should make for a number of interesting possibilities, the loss of trust in established players and the advertising based funding model for the Internet means that for someone a massive opportunity awaits.    

As we move towards 4G what might we expect?

Futurology is a difficult thing, it is easy to get trends right but very difficult to predict just when something might happen and how big it will be.

So here in the UK we have finally sold the spectrum for the launch of 4G services and can expect rivals to EE to start launching services in the Summer.  Will I be standing in line as a fan boy on launch date waiting for an upgrade?

No I don't think it will be an upgrade rather I think that my will be adding a MiFi device to my account so that I can make use of the faster data connection and the wifi connections on my Laptop, Tablet, MP3 player and e-reader when I am mobile and in an area without hotspot action.  Having been at the launch of 2G, 2.5G, 3G and 3.5G services I am experienced enough to know that what the Mobile Operator wants to sell me may not equate to what I need and will not be priced in a manor that encourages use.  Just look at the "smartphones" that were available at the start of 3G against the current suite of Android, Windows Mobile, Blackberry or iPhone devises. Most people got their first experience via a dongle that connected a laptop to 3G than handsets, why would 4G be any different?

What I do expect to see is more innovation from the Networks when it comes to pricing.  The thing about 4G is that it is all about faster data connections and thus you do not multiple accounts/devices rather a single account that allows you to connect as many devices as possible to consume a set amount of data.  I do not expect the present simple structure to work, the first issue is that user has no idea of now much they have use/have left and adding multiple accounts will only make it harder to understand.  I expect that we might see something that reflects the number of devices and times that you expect to use the service.  A Family plan that allows say up to 20 devices use a single connection point mainly before 8:30 and after 16:30 Monday to Friday and at Weekends and a Business Plan that sees connectivity take place between 08:00 and 19:00 and has a higher speed and capacity than the Family plan.

I hope that the introduction of 4G will see innovation from the Networks that see them working with developers rather than against them to use things such as Augmented Reality and Big Data to improve user experiences. I hope that rather than have a service forced upon me that is backed by advertising I have the option to buy a subscription that means I can remove adverts.

A bad day for Britain's Mobile Ecosystem

Today at the Science Museum Everything Everywhere entertained the dumb and witless of the British Press to its "plans" for the launch of LTE services in the UK.  Next month they will give the opportunity to a few to have a service that is so far away from 4G standards that it's laughable. EE are offering the consumer the chance to experience a Mobile Broadband experience of up to 8Mbps which is slower than some with HSDP+ devices on Vodafone are capable of getting.

This launch has every opportunity of being an even bigger disappointment that 3G was in 2003 when coverage was very poor and devices were not best suited for the improvements offered by the new technology.  The real benefit of 4G is not in services to "smartphones" rather it will be improved connectivity for laptops and tablets or it will be delivering highspeed broadband to rural areas. Everything Everywhere has no intention of offering such services any time soon.  Perhaps that is because at present it has problems giving 3G services to these markets.

The UK Government has so far managed to fudge and fiddle the sale of 4G spectrum and hopes that in allowing Everything Everywhere rights to run a second rate service they can force Stakeholders to participate in a flawed sales rather than seek judicial review and see yet more delays.  I would rather have a delayed launch of 4G that gives Britain a significant uplift that enables it to compete with rivals that a glitzy marketing launch of an inferior service that history will see as willy waving - all be it with a shinny new iPhone.

Just who needs Broadband?

The Sunday Times today reports that the Mobile Operators are to be offered the 3G spectrum in perpetuity in exchange for the provision of a universal service which could cost an additional £1-2B to build. In the Observer we are told that BT is looking at a return to mobile becasue of the loss of revenue having spun out Cellnet to help pay off a £30B debt at the time of the 3G auctions.


As someone who was involved in the 3G bids I have to question some of the logic in these reports. On a very simple level if I were the CEO of a Network in the UK the thing I want is planning permission for all the base stations they have planned. The Investment needed for 3G has been slowed because of local resistance to new base stations not cash concerns. In the Local Elections last year the Liberal Democrats had as a manafesto pledge the refusal to allow any new masts to be built. The outcome of this is that Networks need to Appeal Planning Applications to get one built, this is at present taking some 4 years to achieve! For me it means that I have very poor coverage from Orange which will only improve once they get permission to improve coverage not a Governement incentive.


3G spectrum might not be something that has a long time frame in that the current thoughs on 4G is that the old 2G spectrum is refarmed in an effort to improve inbuilding coverage.


Lord Carter (one of Mandleson's Business Ministers) is at present putting the finishing touches to his Digital Britain Report aimed at looking at the needs for UK PLC. It seems that at this moment the Mandleson Machine is stress testing some of the recommendations prior to publication. As well as the 3G "leak" we have the Observer reporting that the central plank of the plan, Fibre to the Home is under threat. BT is looking at the best way to manage its cash knowing that they have a hole in the pension funds and declining incomes thanks to bundles that offer free calls and problems in the Services business.


Whilst I have been looking forward to a better connection than I have at present I am unsure of the benefits of just building FTTH. When you look at the expansion of the M25 you see that the adding of more lanes just means that more are stuck in traffic jams! Thus with a faster internet will we get a better one? The TV content that I want is not yet available on iPlayer and the regulator has said that Picnic or Kangeroo are not fair to sonsumers and so cannot launch. So it best solution for me to wait until the serries finishes and the buy the DVD at HMV if I wish to remain legal or risk viruses and file share. The Government seems to think that because so many are breaking the rules they need to Tax all users of the web. If you get a better connection the incetive will be to break the rules more so who wins?

Final Thoughts on Barcelona

OK my time spent walking from Hall to Hall to have meetings and look at the latest trends is over. If I had taken all the papers pushed at me then I think that the excess baggage charge could be more than the price of my seat on the flight home. In a digital age this seems wrong, some have been smart enough to have added the handouts to the free memory sticks that they hand out this would also allow for links to web pages and the use of video and audio. I guess once those who are part of the Mobile ecosystem start to think in this way then we can speak about mobile being media companies until then they will have to stick at being technologists.

I think that the GSMA may have reached a tipping point in that the World congress is too big for Barcelona. In the early days in France you had a dynamic feel and deals were done in small cafe and one boats. Now you have a massive exhibition with a small conference supported by global suppliers running briefings, but too many people told me that in the next few weeks they were taking customers to Dubai to close a deal. Eventually the big guys are going to move the World Congress to Dubai so that they can talk with the Emerging Markets Customers. Whilst we saw a lot of Chinese attendees to the event I did not see many Indians or Africans and as Orascom's CEO told everyone if you do not address the Emerging Markets then you are not going to be about for long.

My themes from this years show were Coverage, Services and Future. The GSM world has been such a success because it is a vibrant ecosystem.

When I started working in Cellular Communications some 20 plus years ago we spoke about Talking to a person rather than a place. Today we are saying that mobile is about communicating with potentially everything simply and wirelessly. However great that sounds I have to ask if everyone has the same objective? To demonstrate the point today I received a new wireless printer by Lexmark and they have placed a USB cable in the box so that I can connected it with my computer to get things started, this is something they do not do with the wired printers, as I know to my cost and it is not a great inditement of wireless technology!


At the Limo launch event I attended we were treated to a talk by Dr Marty Cooper who explained who mobile was evolving and thanks to Open Standards such as Linux the cost of devices was falling to a level where all could expect to enjoy the benefits of Wireless Broadband and a device that you held in the hand would offer mass communication. Perhaps Dr Cooper needs to travel a little wider? Sony Ericsson handsets for India have to have AM radio so that the owners can listen to cricket because the FM network does not cover a wide enough region. Just how 4G will reach users that are yet to experience 1G is beyond me. I also do not think that the medical technology that he spoke of will have the scale to make it mass market. Some of the issues that we face in the mass market can be seen with the Social Business models. People do not want charity they just want a fair chance. Thus they are unlikely to accept something that we market as a poor man's phones as they aspire to be better. One of the Executives I spoke to told me of the difficulties he is having in India. In talking to a large FMCG company about a handset that would do all the business tasks they needed he discovered that the cost became an issue as it was the same a three months wages. "However in Bombay I see young guys riding a bike and using an E90 as they want to seem a success as our phone is cheaper than a car and gives the same status!" he said he frustration.

When it comes to the network on which we use mobiles we are seeing some interesting developments with LTE some seven years out from what will be commercial launch. OFDM gives the best bang for buck in terms of bandwidth, the metropolitan wifi networks show that mesh networks using wifi are not going to work and so broadband wireless will be either WiMAX or LTE. Looking at the size of demand the legacy element makes LTE the standard for those that already own mobile assets. The support for LTE by Networks across the globe means that now we can start to ask ITU to move forward with setting the standards and building trails.

This year they move the content providers to their own hall which shows that more people are trying to get media onto mobiles. But before you expect to watch video and network in real life with those that you have shaken hands with on Facebook/Bebo/MySpace et al you have to realise that the GSMA stuck them in a Hall that was away from the main group of halls. If content was import it would have been given Hall 2 or 1 the handset guys are still the main bankers for the event as demonstrated by the amount of people in Hall 8. I am still not an advocate for mobile data because I always find the experience somewhat similar to watching HD TV on a black and white screen, i.e. a disappointment. For mobile data to work what you need to do is significantly improve the handset screens and the coverage of the mobile networks data networks. Until that happens then the key data activities on a handset will be text based communication be that SMS/E-Mail/IM dependent on the market. None of these usages should happen when you are moving at a speed, especially if you are supposed to be in control of an car.

The introduction of RFiD to handsets means that a number of new banking services could be launched in developed markets. Germany looks like it will be an interesting place to be at the end of the year with a number of trials following on from the Vodafone and the German Train service.

Day Two @ MWC

Second day walking the halls, catching up with friends and being introduced to new ones.

Managed to gain more knowledge as to what the next generation of mobile might look like and what it may be used for. The battle for 4G has already started as people in committee rooms discus just what is possible and how it may be deployed. The new standard for wireless looks like it will be something that is used more in laptops than in phones to start with. This will be a battle between the mobile players and Intel as to what is used in laptops alongside WiFi. I still have to ask if the dash to a business model that becomes based on Data is something that the Networks will do? But the evidence that in 2009 Vodafone will have a commercial network that is faster than the fibre at a cost to build a lot less than the £50/metre that fibre will cost means that if the in-building coverage can be resolved then 4G might just have a business case.

Have managed to continue my discovery of just what might play out in Mobile Banking by talking to a number of players and the issue seems to be a lack of trust between the Banks and Networks. Stored Value services provided by trusted third parties offer solutions for the Pre-paid sector but this not exactly high value transactions! Perhaps as Banks release message based services that are two way rather than alerts then we can look at some of faster deployments of payment programs. Edgar Dunn have written a report for the GSMA that explains that the development of M-Banking is a headline strategic play for Mobile Networks. Are these the same networks that said that the do not need third parties as they hold the billing relationships? Whilst the developers continue to be small players rather than significant organisations such as HP, IBM and Accenture who work in both the Mobile and Banking space then the M-Wallet risks looking SubPrime for some time to come.

Rounded off the day with a relaxed dinner with a small bunch brought together by Simon Rockman. Good to catch up with a few old friends and make some new ones. One more day of meetings and then a late night flight back to the UK to digest and edit all the information gained into something that might be useful and see me gainfully employed for the coming months.