tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66613202024-03-13T18:57:57.442+00:00Digital EvangelistViews on living at the Bleeding Edge of technology. The journey from consultant to opinion former by a inflated ego. Why does mobile technology mater and how can it make life easier?Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.comBlogger329125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-59107750346052683012019-07-03T16:49:00.001+01:002019-07-03T16:49:27.466+01:00Vodafone UK 5G launch event <span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">July 3rd 2019 and <a href="https://mediacentre.vodafone.co.uk/news/5g-unlimited-data-more-places-than-any-other-network/" target="_blank">Vodafone have "turned on"</a> it's 5G network to customers.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Executive team are focusing on a strategy that is about being rational, they are not going to talk about the launch of the new technology as a race. <b><span style="background-color: white; color: #38444d; white-space: pre-wrap;">Speed and capacity first, then latency "Goal of 10ms within a few years".</span> </b></span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlimited data plans for customers and business + New brand campaign</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Vodafone Together</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hatch go live</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A live 5G world first</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">They have a 5G Brand Ambassador who will "switch on" the network.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's Lewis Hamilton a man who's living is going round and round in circles as fast a possible without breaking down. This is one hell of a metaphor for 5G at present.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The gadget fan boys will be wet with joy!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Grumpy OLD folks who remember 3G crash and burn are going to need </span>Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-54325426061590478302019-05-30T18:15:00.000+01:002019-05-30T18:15:27.355+01:00"One cannot judge the value of opinion simply by the amount of courage that is required in holding it," wrote George Orwell to Evelyn WaughThe last few months public promotion of 5G by <a href="https://twitter.com/benwood" target="_blank">Ben Wood</a> and his colleagues at CCS Insight have caused me to question my sanity. Have I lost my faculties or has Ben been bought as a <i><b>"Social Media Influencer"</b></i> by EE? Today's activity around the launch of 5G by EE has caused me to conclude that he has been bough lock, stock and barrel by BT and he should tag his posts as paid promotion. In Financial Services his approach would be called in for review and it should not be different in the telecoms world.<br />
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Clear advantages to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5G?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5G</a> if you want to download an album on <a href="https://twitter.com/Spotify?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Spotify</a> in "very high" quality. Here's a 4G vs 5G comparison on <a href="https://twitter.com/Qualcomm?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Qualcomm</a> powered <a href="https://twitter.com/oneplus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OnePlus</a> 6T (4G) vs <a href="https://twitter.com/oneplus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OnePlus</a> 7 Pro 5G. Hard not to be impressed by the <a href="https://twitter.com/EE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EE</a> 5G network. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5GEE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5GEE</a> (test conducted in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardiff?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cardiff</a>) <a href="https://t.co/iceFy5Zkqm">pic.twitter.com/iceFy5Zkqm</a></div>
— Ben Wood (@benwood) <a href="https://twitter.com/benwood/status/1133984976960200704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 30, 2019</a></blockquote>
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I've been using the <a href="https://twitter.com/EE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EE</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5G?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5G</a> network in London and Cardiff over the last few days with the <a href="https://twitter.com/oneplus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OnePlus</a> 7 Pro 5G. When in 5G coverage I'm consistently getting 200Mbps to 400Mbps with the fastest speed peaking at around 700Mbps. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5GEE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5GEE</a> <a href="https://t.co/DXdfgtY3iQ">pic.twitter.com/DXdfgtY3iQ</a></div>
— Ben Wood (@benwood) <a href="https://twitter.com/benwood/status/1133962870822232065?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 30, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Wow. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Stormzy?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Stormzy</a> live (and live steamed over 5G) on The Thames in the shadow of <a href="https://twitter.com/TowerBridge?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TowerBridge</a> for the launch of <a href="https://twitter.com/EE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EE</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5G?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5G</a> network in the UK. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5GEE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5GEE</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/bt_uk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@bt_uk</a> <a href="https://t.co/L1vZIIS9nx">pic.twitter.com/L1vZIIS9nx</a></div>
— Ben Wood (@benwood) <a href="https://twitter.com/benwood/status/1133835296271982595?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Here's <a href="https://twitter.com/EE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EE</a>'s 5G smartphone line-up: <a href="https://twitter.com/SamsungMobile?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SamsungMobile</a>'s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GalaxyS10?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GalaxyS10</a> 5G, <a href="https://twitter.com/oppo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Oppo</a> Reno 5G, <a href="https://twitter.com/oneplus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OnePlus</a> 7 Pro 5G and <a href="https://twitter.com/lg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LG</a> V50 ThinQ 5G with Dual Screen accessory. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/5GEE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#5GEE</a> <a href="https://t.co/fNRxb5iSxt">pic.twitter.com/fNRxb5iSxt</a></div>
— Ben Wood (@benwood) <a href="https://twitter.com/benwood/status/1132652168950034432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2019</a></blockquote>
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I would expect a first year GCSE Economics student to provide better coverage than Ben is currently doing as they would offer some balance and critical thinking about the recently launched 5G handsets and the launch services Mobile Networks are promoting in launching 5G. The issue is that Ben Wood has spent twenty years developing a brand and networking so that at the moment he is frequently quoted in the media. Some of this is that CEO's of Networks and Equipment Manufacturers are not as vocal as they were and so Journalists pressed for time to create a "package" seek out Ben for easy quotes.<br />
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EE are first to market with 5G in the UK, but not in Europe, they are less than a week ahead of Vodafone in launching and have chosen a network strategy that will require more base stations but not necessarily more capacity than Vodafone by the year end. The first subscribers for 5G are unlikely to have connected to the network for more than 15% of their usage by the end of the contract in TWO years. The "leadership" that EE claim to have established in the launch of 4G was such that if left it's then Parents seeking an exit from the UK and accepting a financial loss when sold to BT for equity alongside cash. BT was first to market with the launch of 1G, it had a property portfolio that meant that every base station needed up to 2000 could sit on it's estate rather than deal with third party landlords. Yet by 2000 it had been overtaken by Vodafone AND Orange in terms of leadership and had put Cellnet up for sale.<br />
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Thus the launch marketing for 5G by EE can be described as "brave" given the overwhelming demographic of BT's customer base and the very early stage we are in for 5G in terms of business case for consumers adopting the new service. For Ben Wood to take the optimistic view that EE are right to dash forward with a strategy he called <a href="https://www.ccsinsight.com/blog/ee-turns-on-5g-in-the-uk/" target="_blank">"build it and they will come"</a> requires a naivety greater than "the eternal sunshine of the spotless mind". <br />
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Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-34343454411555805342019-05-12T14:18:00.000+01:002019-05-12T14:18:25.719+01:00Just how can one value Vodafone shares? <div class="mentions-texteditor__content" style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Fira Sans", Ubuntu, Oxygen, "Oxygen Sans", Cantarell, "Droid Sans", "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Lucida Grande", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.5; padding: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto; vertical-align: baseline;">
The business section of the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/vodafone-ready-to-slash-dividend-to-pay-for-5g-g6d59xtxl" target="_blank">Sunday Times</a> once again gets me scratching my head about City valuations.</div>
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It is early days in the stewardship of Nick Read as CEO and it will be years before we discover if he was more like Arun Sarin than Vittorio Colao. Yet he is in control of an International Telecoms business that is far better placed than BT. Vodafone has stated that it's plan's for 5G mobile is focused on a slow and stead deployment rather than a race to be first. It does not have the issues that Three and Telefonica face in terms of access to capital to fund the building of infrastructure. It has the scale to be able to get not just better prices but also better service from its suppliers.</div>
Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-17077120998988611242019-05-01T19:20:00.000+01:002019-05-01T19:20:39.057+01:00Are we damed to make the same mistakes with 5G as we did with 3G?<div class="gs" style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: 1195px;">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Looking around the European Mobile Network Operators I fear that 5G</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i> will follow</i></span><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> a similar path to that travelled by 3G.</i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>In too many meetings it is obvious that those at the top of the </i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>organisation do not </i></span><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">have a significant understanding of the details. </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those with the knowledge do not </i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">have the authority to make decisions.</i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The gap between these two groups is to wide</i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> for it to be easily closed.</i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>The race to launch and the nebulous use case for 5G means that we </i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>are going to </i></span><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">enter into a marketing war between companies whose </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">customers see them as less</i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> relevant than the handset manufacturers. </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is because they fail to grasp the </i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">simple fact that for the majority </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">of smartphone users they might be wireless but not</i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> exactly mobile, </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">thus they value good quality WiFi over 4G or 5G.</i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Operators will need to build infrastructure more suited to demand rather</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i> than the </i></span><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">current model and adopt a new pricing structure that is not </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">tied to handset hire </i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">purchasing as the underlying driver. This requires </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">executives and senior management</i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> that have a keen eye for detail and </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">are conversant not only with their own </i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">proposition that also rivals. </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Without that they will be doomed to failure. In every</i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> European market </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">there is overcapacity and as with fibre providers at the height</i><i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> of the dot </i></div>
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<i style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">com era some are destined for collapse into bankruptcy. </i></div>
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Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-21443728893188787132019-03-07T21:22:00.001+00:002019-03-07T21:22:10.022+00:00Why it is wrong to talk about 5G as if it is a race <span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at a lot of the coverage this year about the Mobile Network Operator's plans to launch 5G services and they are framed a winning the race to 5G, the prizes for those that are first. This is at best simplistic in the extreme; it frames the argument in a metaphor that is simply <b>WRONG</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Is everyone starting in the same place?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Are the covering the same distance? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Will the encounter the same hurdles?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Are the subject to the same rules and arbitration?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What is the mythical prize that the winner might expect? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Might the effort to complete the marathon of launching 5G result in the same outcome as the ancient greek who was the first to run the distance, and the victor expires on crossing the finish line? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here in Britain EE was seen as the "winner" in the "race" for 4G. It was such a success that three of the four mobile networks were fighting one another to be rescued by BT when it was looking to buy it's way back into the mobile space. The margin of victory was so slim that the General Public were unable to see it. This has to be the definition of a Pyrrhic victory!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Mobile Network Operators cannot afford to make the mistakes they did with the launch of 3G and 4G over the past 15 years if they are to survive and deliver on the prospects that 5G is supposed to offer. Thus they themselves need to close down the use of the phrase "race to 5G" and reset expectations that this is not just another G rather it is a step change in what is possible and over time data connections will have improved that life will be different in ways that at present cannot be envisaged. </span>Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-51562841256866074992019-01-03T13:56:00.000+00:002019-01-03T13:56:04.098+00:00What might we see with the next generation of mobile technology?Everyone is excited about the possibilities of the fifth generation of mobile networks to significantly change the way that mobile "phone" control our lives. Here are a few ideas:<br />
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<li>Using a 3D hologram rather than travelling so that you can be "in the room" with work colleagues and loved ones,</li>
<li>Voice Activated Concierge Service that you allow to read your messages, control your diary etc so that you might manage the information overflow of your daily life,</li>
<li>Avatar based news feed that allows you to be updated about what you need/want to know when you want without having to flip across a number of services,</li>
<li>Autonomous Cars that self report faults and arrange service appointments based on usage and your needs to "drive",</li>
<li>Smart Homes that are capable of turning on lights, heating, running a bath, washing machines, cookers and remote access for deliveries whilst also security features using video based on real time location information from your phone and traffic flows so that you get home and find that the house is how you want it,</li>
<li>Augmented Reality that uses the camera in your phone to overlay information for you so that you can move around a new space as if you were a local.</li>
</ol>
Whilst these are all suggestions about what we could see with 5G services they are in fact predictions that Orange made when planning for the launch of 3G nearly twenty years ago. It was the work of those who staffed the <a href="https://www.rolandberger.com/zh/Point-of-View/Portable-artificial-intelligence-%E2%80%93-will-you-be-able-to-carry-AI-in-your-pocket.html" target="_blank">Think Tank</a> that was called The Imaginarium it had people with titles like "ambassador of strategy" and "knowledge consul". It right predicted that Mobile Networks will be about providing life services rather than selling phone calls and that there will be no killer app for wireless. It made some bold bets on that future, paying $137.5M to the Press Association for a digital news-feed and $137.5M for a start up speech recognition service called Wildfire. Under the ownership of France Telecom these bets did not pay off and the people who dreamt of the future left.<br />
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Today we have very few Labs within Telecoms Networks and they are not focused on Innovation as they once were. Perhaps 5G might deliver some of what we thought possible with 3G. Perhaps some of what was predicted failed because demand could not be stimulated significantly to create the market. Perhaps the Executives who started to run Mobile Networks once 3G launched had to manage the debt in such a way that they gave away Customer Relationships to the likes of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google without getting anything in return. If 5G is to change anything it needs to change the way that infrastructure is paid for and valued.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-8017873134337245272018-05-11T10:19:00.000+01:002018-05-11T10:19:10.359+01:00BT Group Results The Financial Times <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2cc2e788-5453-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e" target="_blank">Opinion on BT</a>'s results talks about the strategy risking a Kodak moment, in doing so they fail to address the Elephant in the Room. This must be music to the ears of CEO Gavin Patterson.<br />
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If the Company is to be turned around, then the job cuts need to be about the closing of businesses that have no future and the loss of 13,000 members of staff is not enough. Global Services is not a business that works and looks more like Carillion than a magic money tree. The idea that BT Vision can get customers to pay more for services that are not core has been proven wrong and thus is now the time to close the business?<br />
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Yet these plans were not addressed in the presentation rather short terms issues of investment in Next Generation Investment and statutory requirements for funding Pension requirements where the focus. <br />
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If BT Group is to be turned around I do not think that Gavin Patterson is capable of leading the job, and that they need to find talent from outside the company capable of leading the restructure as well as changing the relationship with regulators if the business is to have a future. Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-58498270079587323352018-04-26T13:54:00.001+01:002018-04-26T13:54:27.724+01:00My review of Building a Full-Fibre FutureToday Ofcom hosted a forum for industry leaders to address the future of ultrafast, fibre broadband in the UK.<br />
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Matt Hancock told us what the Government hoped to achieve from the event <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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As part of our goal of building a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fullfibrefuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fullfibrefuture</a>, we want the telecoms market to be both competitive and collegiate. Our review into the future of telecoms investment here <a href="https://t.co/Wx0YAxtCEw">https://t.co/Wx0YAxtCEw</a> <a href="https://t.co/IaB1ZPZxe1">pic.twitter.com/IaB1ZPZxe1</a></div>
— Matt Hancock (@MattHancock) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/989443396598140928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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The FttH Council Europe didn't answer the exam question but shared some data from a study they conducted <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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Why do consumers choose fibre? In our study we found 3 main reasons: 1/higher speeds 2/access to a much wider variety of services 3/better value for money says <a href="https://twitter.com/efitori?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@efitori</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fullfibrefuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fullfibrefuture</a> with <a href="https://twitter.com/DCMS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DCMS</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/Ofcom?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Ofcom</a> <a href="https://t.co/9wv6NeKiZf">pic.twitter.com/9wv6NeKiZf</a></div>
— FTTH Council Europe (@FTTHCouncilEU) <a href="https://twitter.com/FTTHCouncilEU/status/989433302204416000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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A man from Virgin Media turned up and said something interesting and not related to being bought by Vodafone <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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More action required from Ofcom & Govt: greater consistency of local authority behaviour; scalable duct&pole access model; urgent need for wayleave reform says Rob Evans, MD Lightning <a href="https://twitter.com/virginmedia?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@virginmedia</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FullFibreFuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FullFibreFuture</a> <a href="https://t.co/Un9oAJCkyc">pic.twitter.com/Un9oAJCkyc</a></div>
— Erzsebet Fitori (@efitori) <a href="https://twitter.com/efitori/status/989450979824340992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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The price of setting Britain on the right path has gone up a lot since Steven Carter's Digital Britain Report got kicked into the longer grass <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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Yes, rolling-out fibre is a significant investment but we think this is an achievable investment. Taking into account the cost-saving opportunities, we estimate the cost of rolling fibre to €137B says <a href="https://twitter.com/efitori?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@efitori</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fullfibrefuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fullfibrefuture</a> <a href="https://t.co/3QXdQEtoq4">pic.twitter.com/3QXdQEtoq4</a></div>
— FTTH Council Europe (@FTTHCouncilEU) <a href="https://twitter.com/FTTHCouncilEU/status/989426387210637312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Ofcom close with the Chief Executive saying that things need to change but it is the market rather than stakeholders that need to deliver <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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Closing comments from Sharon White, Ofcom's Chief Executive, at <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fullfibrefuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fullfibrefuture</a>. <a href="https://t.co/m4dAcx1qKF">pic.twitter.com/m4dAcx1qKF</a></div>
— Ofcom (@Ofcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ofcom/status/989465978856722432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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This man has a plan, but it needs your money, lots of your money. But he is wise and knows how to spend it on good things...<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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🗣️ Our CEO Gavin Patterson at <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fullfibrefuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fullfibrefuture</a><br /><br />“We need a world-leading network combining fibre, WiFi and 5G. But this<br />is a very significant investment, and it needs to be made ahead of demand.” <a href="https://t.co/954BcfCFMB">pic.twitter.com/954BcfCFMB</a></div>
— BT Group (@BTGroup) <a href="https://twitter.com/BTGroup/status/989425618738655237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Lots of talking, so top quality graphics but no firm plan on how to move forward as it's complex stuff! <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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What is full-fibre broadband? What benefits could it bring to people in the UK? Find out here: <a href="https://t.co/FMefqkuoKF">https://t.co/FMefqkuoKF</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fullfibrefuture?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fullfibrefuture</a> <a href="https://t.co/Ti1zMNHzux">pic.twitter.com/Ti1zMNHzux</a></div>
— Ofcom (@Ofcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ofcom/status/989436293414359042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<br />Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-44541824084358706242018-02-09T15:59:00.000+00:002018-02-09T15:59:09.469+00:00Back to the future?When Racal and British Telecom launched mobile telephone networks in the UK in 1985 they were separated from the customer by Service Providers. The Economist in a <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21736515-shared-networks-can-increase-competition-services-top-them-national-5g-wireless" target="_blank">leader</a> thinks that when it comes to 5G it might be an idea to return to because the <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/business/21736596-whizzy-5g-tech-has-everything-going-it-barring-strong-business-case-next-generation" target="_blank">business case does not </a>work for current networks to build multiple overlapping infrastructure.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-20437741954313251212018-02-09T12:28:00.003+00:002018-02-09T12:28:57.136+00:00Don't cry for Charles Dunstone...Yesterday TalkTalk reported it's results to the City and people were <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/02/08/talktalk-shares-tumble-profit-warning-200m-placing-fund-fibre/" target="_blank">not happy</a> with what they were telling them.<br />
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The once wonder of the telecoms industry is turning into his idol Richard Branson, but not in the way he dreamed. It's only a question of time when TalkTalk is no more rather than one of if.<br />
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Dunstone has built his fortune on the spin that with him you get the best price be it Mobile phones, fixed line telephony or broadband like some spiv working the crowd in Romford Market. The problem with TalkTalk is that the customers are now not prepared to pay the actual cost of delivering fibre broadband and having seen an exodus of customers because of poor service and hacking it has had to offer contracts at below cost to keep the numbers respectable. The perfect storm has also seen it now having to fix the holes in its finances with a cash injection almost equal to 12 months income.<br />
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Since the days of FreeServe I have said that the issue with UK Broadband investment that needed to be addressed was that the Retail Price never reflected the cost of the service or offered a Return on Investment that justified major spending. The TalkTalk partners in a project to bring superfast fibre to York have got their fingers burned from working with Dunstone to the extent that don't wish to undertake anymore work with him. Dunstone thinks that because he has a large customer base someone else will provide the money. that might have worked 20 years ago but not today.<br />
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As others invest in the building of Superfast Broadband Dunstone will be on the sidelines shouting that its a rigged market and BT has failed to invest in Wholesale services that would allow him to stay in business. TalkTalk's strategy in terms of maintaining it's customer numbers means that he will invest in marketing and promotions at the expense of infrastructure and customer service which means that he will have difficulty in get those customers to pay more. Thus we are looking at decline to the point of bankruptcy nobody will buy them out of the hole they have dug for themselves.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-74896246067710402002018-02-01T15:26:00.001+00:002018-02-01T15:26:43.645+00:00BT Broadband plans, to little to late?Woke up this morning to CEO of BT Openreach talking on Radio 4 about the <a href="https://www.homeandbusiness.openreach.co.uk/news/fibrefirst" target="_blank">plan to accelerate his Fibre to the Premises</a> build programme so that he has a chance of hitting 3m homes and buildings by 2020. In order to work 50% faster than it is at the moment BT will be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/01/bt-openreach-hire-3000-engineers-drive-to-fill-broadband-not-spots" target="_blank">hiring 3,000</a> engineers. It would seem that HR Director Kevin Brady has massive task on his hands given that candidate require very little in entry skills if <a href="https://www.homeandbusiness.openreach.co.uk/news/openreach-recruiting-engineers-right-now-in-london" target="_blank">this is anything</a> to go on. <br />
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When you look at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/09/vodafone-to-offer-superfast-gigabit-broadband-in-12-uk-cities-by-2021" target="_blank">investment made </a>to deliver Fibre to Milton Keynes by rival CityFibre it looks like the plans of BT are not aggressive enough and by the time they have hit the 10m target the technology they are deploying is unlikely to be capable of serving needs of 5G mobile.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-10787655977545977782018-01-26T12:03:00.000+00:002018-01-26T12:03:01.013+00:00Mobile FuturesIt's been a while since I have blogged but hopefully over the next few days I'll start to establish a better routine.<br />
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Expect 2018 to see a number of Mobile Networks doing proof of <a href="http://telecoms.com/487324/telefonica-to-bring-5g-to-segovia-and-talavera-de-la-reina/" target="_blank">concept trials</a> of 5G, we are seeing the <a href="http://telecoms.com/487222/france-takes-tentative-steps-towards-5g/" target="_blank">first in Europe</a> with <a href="http://telecoms.com/487382/huawei-dt-and-intel-claim-first-ever-5g-nr-interoperability-test/" target="_blank">DT is already doing so</a>, more will follow. Physical Devices will start to become available in the <a href="http://telecoms.com/487114/zte-wants-to-launch-a-5g-smartphone-this-year/" target="_blank">last quarter of the year</a> once chipsets move into preproduction phase.<br />
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The focus for IoT should move away from Consumer fantasy solutions to more of a focus on Enterprise offerings because significant elements of integration will be required if the sector is to be more than just basic plug and play applications. IoT needs to evolve into a major market because a significant amount of planning around its demand for capacity has been used to justify the need for 5G at a time when 4G has yet to be completely deployed. Without being able to show new markets Mobile Networks are not likely to be able to raise the finances needed to build 5G out.<br />
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I expect to see more criticism of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/25/george-soros-facebook-and-google-are-a-menace-to-society" target="_blank">negative effects </a>of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/08/apple-investors-iphone-addiction-children" target="_blank">Smartphones </a>on our everyday lives as people start to realise that the App ecosystems rather than helping is hurting. I left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/11/facebook-google-public-health-democracy" target="_blank">Facebook </a>over a year ago, when I upgraded my phone in Summer 2016 I removed the Facebook App that was preinstalled. I do not have notifications enabled on by phone for anything other than email, and then it is only my work account. It is not mobile phones that are doing the damage it is what you allow on them and how you then live with that software. But just as it is usual the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/19/tim-cook-i-dont-want-my-nephew-on-a-social-network" target="_blank">child of someone</a> who works in technology who is last to get a phone at school it is those in the sector who are least likely to use excessively the technology. <br />
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Running a Telecoms Network is about a lot more than just deal making you just have to look at the problems of <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/2018-01-02-high-noon-looms-for-altices-patrick-drahi/" target="_blank">those who jumped on the M&A</a> bus and crashed into a pile of debt as the consolidation boom they embarked on failed to deliver the riches from scaling up. As you layer generation upon generation of technology the issue becomes more complex not just in terms of Infrastructure but also Customer expectations and demand. Before the iPhone we saw a broad spectrum of handset designs enable by the fact that manufacturing processes were controlled by Equipment makers rather than outsourced. Today Smartphones are all the say form factor and operate one of two software systems this means that the generation that has known nothing but smartphones has a set of expectation and behaviours vastly different from those whom started out with phones that were primarily phones.<br />
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So how might things be made better? Can it be done without the need to Regulate and litigate? Are Investors happy to allocate capital at a rate that allows development? I will try and post a few thoughts on how to go forward without breaking confidentiality clauses signed with clients of the next few weeks. Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-66078750668966488192017-10-06T15:44:00.001+01:002017-10-06T15:44:47.746+01:00Somethings to ponder The Google future is one that means you only need to speak one language. Alongside showing the <a href="http://bgr.com/2017/10/04/pixel-2-vs-pixel-2-xl-specs-release-date-price/" target="_blank">Phone</a> that Google hopes will "incentivise" Android Handset Makers they <a href="http://bgr.com/2017/10/05/pixel-buds-translation-demo-video-watch/" target="_blank">showed off a headset</a> that allows real time translation. Will this be the <a href="https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/10/05/google_ai_phones_home_laptops_earbuds/" target="_blank">Babble Fish of Douglas Adams </a>fame or is it going to lead to mistakes that a Comedy Writer could only dream of?<br />
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Interesting <a href="http://telecoms.com/485206/ofcom-might-be-secretly-pleased-btee-is-challenging-its-5g-auction-rules/" target="_blank">round up</a> on the current state of UK's next round of Spectrum Auctions over at Telecoms.com gives Ofcom more credit that they are due, but I also think that a delay might not be a bad thing given that most Networks are still t<a href="http://telecoms.com/485021/european-telco-associations-implore-the-eu-to-get-back-on-track/" target="_blank">rying to figure ou</a>t just what they are going to do with 5G.<br />
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Softbank <a href="https://www.investegate.co.uk/softbank-group-corp-/rns/arm-holdings-plc---post-offer-undertakings/201710060700038744S/" target="_blank">investment</a> in to the UK post purchase of ARM is highlighted in this report. Whilst the UK headcount has grown so has the non-UK headcount and I expect that the increase will be greater outside of the UK going forward given the politics of a post Brexit UK.<br />
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Technology Review has an <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609048/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-ai-predictions/" target="_blank">interesting post</a> on the problems being a Futurologist that is worth a read. Almost all of the thoughts about the potential for AI could have been written by the staff of Orange's Imaginerium in 1999 when they modelled what customrers would be using the 3G network for once it launched.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-87645906492696695272017-09-23T08:23:00.001+01:002017-09-23T08:23:41.607+01:00Imagination Technologies sale to Cabyon Bridge On Friday, Imagination Technologies <a href="http://timharford.com/2017/09/trump-bannon-and-the-terrible-lure-of-zero-sum-thinking/" target="_blank">announced</a> that Canyon Bridge had bought the company that put itself up for sale following the loss of Apple as a customer earlier in the year.<br />
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The Telegraph has been reporting that such a transaction leaves the UK Government with a headache as Canyon Bridge is backed by Chinese money and might also suffer the fate of Cadbury post purchase and be stripped of its assets.<br />
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I rather expect that the Hertfordshire based business is likely to suffer the fate of Vertu and end up bankrupt and sold for scrap in less than two years because of mismanagement and the new owner having very little understanding as to just what they own and control.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-61194831728875355462017-09-21T15:23:00.000+01:002017-09-21T15:23:12.365+01:00Did Liberty Global just pay Arthur D Little to publish research that shows it has very little future?Having spent some time reading Arthur D Little's latest report, <a href="http://www.adlittle.com/time-viewpoints.html?&view=833" target="_blank">Unlocking GigaWorld Innovation</a>, I have to ask why was Liberty Global associated with it? <br />
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If you liked the <a href="https://twitter.com/adlittle">@adlittle</a> report, you can find out more about our <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GIGAworld?src=hash">#GIGAworld</a> campaign here at <a href="https://t.co/yFaVPj4fnu">https://t.co/yFaVPj4fnu</a></div>
— Liberty Global (@libertyglobal) <a href="https://twitter.com/libertyglobal/status/910547737913036800">September 20, 2017</a></blockquote>
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If you take the time to read the <a href="http://www.adlittle.com/downloads/tx_adlreports/ADL_Unlocking_GigaWorld_Innovation.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> very little of what the outline can be served by the services currently sold by Liberty Global unless I have missed them building a massive Business Services unit to match those of BT Global Services and Vodafone Enterprise Services. The report in itself seems to be of the sort written by Analysts in order to justify a particular market and has a degree of optimism even a Blockchain booster my call over confident.<br />
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If the report is a forecast of what is happening rather than what might then Liberty Global does not have the product portfolio or workforce that is capable of grabbing the opportunities and thus faces the terminal decline of a British High Street shopping chain that failed to engage suitably with the Digital Consumer.<br />
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Go take a look and tell me if I'm fooling myself!Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-60714499898176138232016-08-30T10:54:00.001+01:002016-08-30T10:54:43.635+01:00Virgin Media investment plans <div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over the weekend Virgin Media revealed it's latest investment plans to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/27/virgin-media-seeks-to-pile-pressure-on-rivals-with-more-network/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>. It is seeking to expand it's network asking Liberty Global to increase it's investment to grow the footprint of it's Fibre network a £3bn plan to grow from 50% of households covered to almost 66%. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given that interest rates are at all time lows and Virgin have said that the investment has a good return in growing the customers base in areas where they are new entrants rather than established provider why are they not seeking to be aggressive and double the investment? The reports on broadband coverage in Britain say that the costs are not commercial for just the last 10% of households and so the capacity is there to almost double what Virgin already has. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We could say that Liberty Global is being cautious given the uncertainty around Brexit and its economic impact or as a Global player the upside of investment outside of the UK is greater than inside. One option would be for Virgin to become more of a player within the Business market which its brand does not speak to other than in the small business sector, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/28/meet-the-start-ups-cashing-in-on-a-small-business-broadband-boom/" target="_blank">some players are realising that BT</a> is providing a very poor quality service. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Is Virgin gaming the market to such an extent that it knows that investment is infrastructure is like betting on England's football team? It needs to stay in the game and the cost of new customers is lower in areas that it is an entrant to rather than established in that they are likely to buy a bundled service bigger than that established customers.</span></div>
Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-77566900442815399722016-07-27T14:54:00.001+01:002016-07-27T14:54:17.595+01:00Handset upgrade time. Be careful out there!For the past two weeks I have been fighting with my new Smartphone. My HTC One was over two years old and so I was "eligible" for an upgrade, I visited a store just off Oxford Street hopeful that I might pick up the latest HTC One.<br />
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The first problem was that they didn't have any in store, if I came back in two days I could have one. "They are very popular you know," I was told by the girl who was born after I started working in the mobile industry. I was also going to have to pay something up front, something I have never done. As a mobile network I would say that EE is overstocked as she then tried to sell me on an iPhone with a pitch that even Phones-4-You would have found aggressive at it's peek.<br />
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I looked at the Huawei P9 on the stand all shinny and new and unlike any of the others in I could have it for the same monthly tariff I was on and NO money up front. The Sales Assistant then gave me another sales pitch telling me that this phone had the BEST camera as it was a Leica and I would not be disappointed if I went for this model.<br />
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I thought that what could be that different between the Huawei and the HTC they were both running the latest Android software and the last few months I've been using it on the old handset. It came with twice the capacity in terms of memory and whilst it was not using Qualcomm's chips it much of an impairment was it going to be day to day? So I said yes I'll take one for the next two years.<br />
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The box I was handed spoke of higher quality that the one my last phone turned up in. The slimline handset looked good as a SIM card was inserted. But a few things seemed to be missing in the box, not protective case or film for the screen but hey I can buy those online. I had to dash for a meeting and so didn't have time to unbox everything and so left the shop.<br />
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After my meeting I turned on the Huawei and the UI was something of a surprised in looked liked a device from 2012. The icons of Apps that I reinstalled from the Google Store were displaying retro logo, were they also outdated in terms of functionality? I attempted to look through the menu to find a transfer tool that would allow me to copy over some/all of my personal data from the HTC alas no joy! This was something that I had on my Nokia before 3G surely the engineers at Huawei realised that consumers expected some assistance moving to a new handset. It takes a long time to rekey all the things that are important and it's hard to remember passwords that you've not had to use for two years plus.<br />
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Back home and with time and space to complete looking at what was in the box and more surprises! The first thing that strikes me is that the cable in order to fit in the small package is half the length of what I used to and rather than a microUSB it is the new Micro Fitting. the distance from the power socket to my desk is further than the cable so until I can but a 2M replacement the phone lies on the floor whilst it charges!<br />
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Next we have the headset it looks like something I would pick up a Petrol Station for under £5 to replace a lost one no something I'd associate with a Premium Handset.<br />
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The Huawei P9 is so new that third parties are yet to produce any accessories and so finding a decent case is proving an issue the first two bought on line have been returned because the didn't look like it did on line.<br />
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The first weekend of "testing" the Huawei was an education. Standing at the Tube station I logged on to the Virgin Media Hotspot and thought that I was set for the day. But unlike my HTC the Huawei does not scan and login in as we pull into each station rather you have to manual scan, select and connect or just scan. This process becomes a test between the train driver and myself as to speed to move on.<br />
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Having taken a few snaps with the "BEST Camera" on the market I grab a coffee and start to edit them using my favourite Apps and after 10 minutes I become aware that when Winter comes I'm not going to need gloves as the phone is now "warm" I don't want to see how soon it becomes hot! This weekend I tested out the panoramic function and it failed to stitch the image cleaning five times out of five regardless of speed at which I pan the camera. With the HTC I have about five failures in two years and I take a lot of photos. The next issue with the Leica enabled Huawei is that the angle of view is less than that of the HTC and so I now have to stand back to get the same view I've become used to. Then I posted the edited pictures on to Flickr and Instagram to see the difference between phones old and new. The Huawei does not record itself as a P9 on Flickr rather it is a "<span style="background-color: #f3f5f6; color: #212124; font-family: 'Proxima Nova', 'helvetica neue', helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">HUAWEI EVA-L09" </span>so much for Brand Management helping to grow sales.<br />
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How much memory does your phone have? Well despite claims I have less free space on my P9 than I had on my HTC, yet it's supposed to have twice the capacity and I have installed less Apps and the phone has no bloatware installed by my Mobile Network.<br />
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What can I say that is positive about the P9 well the battery is excellent on the basis that I am getting two days use between charges. BUT that is because the user experience is so poor that I am using it less than I did my HTC.<br />
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What have I discovered from the whole sorry experience? The idiots that review new handsets are not journalists, they conduct a few simple tests rather than actively use handset and then sell the device or returning it to the PR company they are sitting in front of. The margins within Consumer contracts are so slim that Mobile Networks no longer have any interest in Customer Service and so if you make a mistake with your handset choice you have to live with a lemon for two years. Huawei are a VERY long way from being able to compete with Sony let alone Apple, HTC and Samsung when it comes to PREMIUM handsets. Google does not give much assistance to Handset manufacturers and care even less about consistent user experience.<br />
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I am still looking for a 2M cable, quality leather case and headset to use with the P9, if you have any recommendations then please leave a comment. If you are in the market for a new handset give Huawei a few years to improve before picking one up.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-20916458825637164002016-07-26T10:57:00.001+01:002016-07-26T10:57:41.887+01:00Ofcom BT proposal is a fudge rather than regulation that UK will need following the EU referendum Whilst having breakfast today Ofcom <a href="http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2016/making-digital-communications-work-openreach-bt/" target="_blank">published</a> it proposal for BT Openreach following the year long review of how structural separation is servicing the market a decade after it's creation. Ofcom's Chief Executive Sharon White spoke on <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36891446" target="_blank">BBC Radio 4's Today</a> programme to explain what the thinking was on fixing the failed provision of broadband and the fastest way to to turn things around. Her key message was that spinning out Openreach was too complex and would take too long and so forcing BT to create an independent Chair and improved reporting was going to allow changes to take place faster. <br />
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BT didn't seem to have any problems splitting Cellnet out and thus should not have issues with Openreach. The problem this time is the state of the Pension scheme and complex contracts.<br />
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After White had left the radio studio her place was taken by BT's CEO and his opposite number at Talk Talk to have their say on the proposal. As could be expected Dido Harding was disappointed that Ofcom did not take a harder line. Gavin Patterson's response could have been a comedy routine at the BT managers away day, his best line was, "BT does not game Ofcom".<br />
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Over the past ten years BT has spent £10Bn investing in Broadband Services and in an effort to hold off break up offered to spend £6Bn in the next three years. Too often consumers and businesses in Britain are complaining that the current infrastructure is woeful and the offer to double spending in the next three years is not going to raise satisfaction.<br />
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The 2010 spending review by George Osborne resulted in budgets cuts to Ofcom which means that a review that should have been completed in 12 months will take over two years. BT and its rivals all have more lawyers and economists than Ofcom and are capable of gaming the regulatory processes.<br />
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Some on Twitter seem to think that this is another victory for BT <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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yes, it is BT 1: Ofcom 0. Conduct regulation has failed, and this is just more failure. <a href="https://twitter.com/AnnRobinson8">@AnnRobinson8</a></div>
— John Fingleton (@JohnFingleton1) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnFingleton1/status/757837690515574784">July 26, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
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John Singleton is the former head of the OFT and he seems underwhelmed by the proposals.<br />
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If we want better infrastructure for broadband then it's best served by Openreach becoming a business in its own right and being able to raise capital on its own behalf rather than competition for budget with other BT subsidiaries and group commitments such as Pensions which at the moment is £12Bn in debt. Theresa May's new Industrial strategy hopefully will see the Government reject the proposal and seek BT's break up.<br />
<br />Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-16153203262974185972016-04-11T17:39:00.001+01:002016-04-11T17:39:41.768+01:00So just how many Mobile Networks does a country like Britain need?Today the Competition and Markets Authority <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515405/CMA_letter_to_Commissioner_Margrethe_Vestager.pdf" target="_blank">published</a> a letter to the European Commissioner calling for the merger of Three and O2 to be blocked to protect the consumer. I had to check that it was not written ten days ago, the current government believes in the Free Market and the market has shown that the UK is not large enough to support five and now four network owners.<br />
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If the CMA wanted to protect the consumer then was BT allowed to buy EE and why was it not forced to spin out Openreach?<br />
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The role of Ofcom should be to provide assurance that the market for Mobile Infrastructure is not manipulated by the players in the market and that they are fulfilling the terms of licences granted via spectrum sales by Government. The failure is not that Overseas Investors can no longer justify investment in an extremely competitive market but rather Regulators are under resourced and qualified. The 2010 spending review by George Osborne and subsequent budgets has seen the money available to manage Ofcom fall and the remit rise this means that a regulator that had been struggling now is not fit for purpose. Rather than resource the service correctly we have a Government that is taking others to undertake the role for it. <br />
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The second generation of mobile expansion saw just four networks build the industry at the fastest pace, with innovative product launches which the CMA now feels is a risk to the consumer! Alongside the network owners we also have a number of MVNOs that offer services to customers at a range of prices. We might have fewer retail options on the high street with the demise of a number of independent retailers for the time of mass adoption of mobile but we are unlikely too see price rises as a result of Three buying O2.<br />
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I hope that the European Regulator has far more economists than the CMA and Ofcom and realises that the UK consumer is not able to fund adequately four mobile network operators. Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-12733922003406298602016-02-02T09:21:00.000+00:002016-02-02T09:21:49.410+00:00What do we do about O2?Over the last few days the FT has <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54f9d684-c8e7-11e5-be0b-b7ece4e953a0.html" target="_blank">focused</a> on the potential for regulators to stop the disposal of O2 in the UK by Telefonica. They are now saying that the UK must not drop to just three networks but the market requires four.<br />
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This is such a simple belief in competition that you have to ask how much time have they invested understanding why two of the four incumbents courted BT when they signalled a wish to return to the mobile sector? When former state owned players cannot make the numbers work to operate in one of the largest economies in the world then the market has failed!<br />
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The current level of competition means that at a consumer level the numbers are marginal. The Infrastructure requirements to roll out 4G makes the market subprime. Rather than opt out of regulation Ofcom should seek to acknowledge that the solutions required needs them to take decisive action to improve the cost base whilst raising the quality of the networks.<br />
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If the Infrastructure can be improved and better wholesale terms can be achieved then at a retail level we might se more competition. Over the past 15 years we have seen a decline in the number of retailers offering consumers mobiles as Independent players have gone to the wall and Networks have closed a number of there stores. The exit of Tesco from the MVNO space can be seen as a warning flag that the consumer might have won on price but has lost on quality.<br />
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I would allow Three to buy O2 on the basis that Telefonica is current in a debt reduction cycle rather than investment mode, thus all the while it holds the UK asset it under invests meaning that it falls behind it competitors. Without Three buying O2 the business would face a slow death. Once we have consolidated the market to three players we require Ofcom to invest in staff with a deep knowledge of Mobile who are prepared to take action before breakfast, before lunch and after dinner to borrow a phrase from Michael Heseltine. At the dawn of Mobile thirty years ago we had a duopoly that was regulated in such a way that consumers had choice and a number of people became MultiMillionaires serving the consumer.<br />
<br />Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-6019841352599996472016-01-11T14:39:00.000+00:002016-01-11T14:39:07.775+00:00Think outside the box <span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Conversations since the return to work seem to focus on the presumption that the answer is Apps when it comes to mobile.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>I fear that those I am speaking to are extremely short sited and need them to starting thinking about the end of the current smartphone OS ecosystems. I think that more individuals are removing Apps from devices than adding them and too many new apps are clones rather than innovative. As 4G coverages becomes more widespread we have an opportunity to change the current power structures. But this is only possible if those in the Mobile space change their mindset.</i></span>Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-38825958051437528512015-09-29T10:44:00.002+01:002015-09-29T10:44:33.440+01:00Valuing Vodafone<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Yesterday Vodafone reported that it was no longer <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CD0QFjAHahUKEwjg8KXn9ZvIAhVMvRQKHWclBH8&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2015%2Fjun%2F05%2Fvodafone-liberty-global-asset-swap-talks&usg=AFQjCNGQpCm0EwwlLv0i4fhtwqRAsEIQjw" target="_blank">talking</a> to Liberty Global about an asset swap and many analysts called it a mistake. I have always seen it as a foregone conclusion, Liberty Global wants to exit Europe it has very little of interest to Vodafone and the pricing was always out of sync.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Earlier Malone had said that no deal was likely to happen with Vodafone as despite an investor roadshow pitching the "benefits" of such a deal to stockholders he had been unable to convince Executive inside Vodafone that a deal made sense and the price was right.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>What has been a surprise to me is the<a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDcQFjAGahUKEwjg8KXn9ZvIAhVMvRQKHWclBH8&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2015-09-28%2Fvodafone-says-talks-with-liberty-global-have-ended-if3ja4jn&usg=AFQjCNGjvWLicVHMPqoYt6t3e-S6HoUFBQ" target="_blank"> rent</a> a <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDEQFjAFahUKEwjg8KXn9ZvIAhVMvRQKHWclBH8&url=http%3A%2F%2Fuk.reuters.com%2Farticle%2F2015%2F09%2F28%2Fuk-vodafone-m-a-liberty-idUKKCN0RS0IJ20150928&usg=AFQjCNGSO9iF0a2PZnRVaEEXh4zOmDXr3w" target="_blank">quote</a> <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCoQFjAEahUKEwjg8KXn9ZvIAhVMvRQKHWclBH8&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F28fb06f4-65a8-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html&usg=AFQjCNHYt5FGedu_Jley6A8_rLee7w9YEQ" target="_blank">brigade</a> who are all happy to say that it was an error on Vodafone's behalf. Telecoms in Europe is a marginal one when it comes to profitability and more customers does not necessarily mean that the odds are better for success. Investments are high and prices are falling, this could explain why Liberty wishes to exit before it can no longer pay debts, and competition is intense. Vodafone under Colao has not been about market share at any price rather it is about effective management of assets and seeking to maintain margins. Thus taking on Liberty's properties in Holland and Germany was not going to survive an introductory discussion. </i></span>Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-66729134638836434552015-09-15T10:53:00.000+01:002015-09-15T10:53:02.294+01:003UK Launches free VoLTE<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Read <a href="http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=491111" target="_blank">this today</a> and thought that once again Networks don't understand that Voice is the key product and whilst innovation is welcome, this is not it! To be fair to 3UK they are not the only ones to play games with the Customer EE have a similar VoLTE service that is only available to those taking a new HTC or have an iPhone 5/6. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>The first thing that gets my back up is that what is basically a software product has been launched on a single handset. It is not a marketing product to be used to force a different purchasing decision it's a service that should be capable of launching to ALL existing customers with a Smartphone not because you have bought a Galaxy S5.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Then we have the issue that the Executive put up to promote the launch is the CTO of 3UK rather than a dedicated executive for Voice. If a mobile network cannot appoint a Board Member to oversea and promote a CORE product then just why should the customer respect it?</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Since using a 4G handset I have experienced very poor quality phone calls. The ability to drop calls reminds me of the early days of Orange and One-2-One when in an effort to overcome such a poor experience Orange offered "free calls" if you had to redial as a result of dropped calls. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>For a long time I have spoken in private about the fact that voice revenues have declined in Mobile Networks because very little time is spent reviewing Voice as a product at Board Level. I have not met a senior executive in Europe who sits on a board and has sole responsibility for Voice for the past ten years. As a result we have Customers not bothering to make phone calls on a mobile because the experience disappoints. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>I had hoped that by now Mobile users could have an active directory service which highlighted if a number in you contacts list was engaged before you called or inactive for a number of hours prior to your call. Such a service could mean that rather than dialling the user could chose to send a text message. I also hoped that the audio quality would have been upgraded to a level that allowed noise cancelation enhancing the ability to hear what has been said without asking the other person to speak up. </i></span>Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-9738618979973870812015-08-26T12:46:00.001+01:002015-08-26T12:46:45.547+01:00BT has got NO friends!Over the last few weeks it seems that the current Ofcom review of BT is unlikely to follow the pattern of "business as usual" when it comes to outcomes. These could mean that the chickens finally come home to roost at BT.<br />
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Over the course of a week BBC Radio4 featured the failures of Broadband Britain to live up to promises on the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOqDU6ZP1SE&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">Today</a> programme. It was not until 4 negative features that BT CEO Gavin Patterson finally agreed to an interview and that was not face to face rather it was prerecorded and broadcast on a Saturday morning. You have to ask just what the PR team were doing, was it a failure or arrogance?<br />
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This weekend Chris Bryant <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/11819236/BT-should-be-stripped-of-Openreach-says-Chris-Bryant.html" target="_blank">wrote</a> to The Telegraph calling for the break-up of BT because it had failed to provide the Broadband needed of UK PLC despite £1.8bn of grants to do so. This is a shadow minister prepared to outline Labour Party policy in the middle of a Leadership election!<br />
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These events on there own might lead you to think that BT will be alright, it might find itself facing tighter regulation but it's unlikely that a break-up will be forced on it. However take a look at the fact that industry rivals that are also calling for a split are also donors to the Conservative Party and you might start to thing that BT could be facing years of legal challenges and disruption. Given that Ian Livingston's time in Government was shorter than a contract for one of BT's services you have to ask what friends they have?<br />
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<br />Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6661320.post-81251752650239902502015-08-10T16:30:00.000+01:002015-08-10T16:30:10.472+01:00The decline and fall of HTC Over the last week a number of people have been speculating on the future of HTC saying that it is at risk of disappearing. The problem is that having climbed the mountain of volume sales of phones to number three it has failed to ascend to the top and rather has slipped back as a result of poor sales for the flagship HTC One (M9).<br />
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The problem for HTC is that the "upgrade" to the M9 was judged by most not to be significant enough from the M8 and so growth stopped.<br />
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The creation of the mobile phone mass market was achieved by a few manufacturers who offered a range of handsets. The manufacturers of my early days in mobile are now consigned to museums rather than still major players, Motorola, Erricson and Nokia. But then others older than me will say the same about car manufacturers of the early 20th century and we still have cars.<br />
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The global dominance of Nokia was achieved not on a single handset but rather on a platform of devices that were conceived thanks to long term analysis and developed not just internally but also using the skills of the IDEO Group. This meant that both hardware and software evolved dependent on the markets that the handsets were sold in to.<br />
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The Android Ecosystem leaves very little room for customisation by manufacturers and contract manufacture means that common components leave devices looking very similar.<br />
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The shame is that the early days of HTC saw it make a range of handsets that made use of touch AND keyboard. Why then now are we faced with a single form factor in just two sizes? Perhaps we can expect contract manufacturing will give HTC some space to recover rather than it fail but it is more likely that it will pass into history. Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com0