Predictions for 2005

Today's Independenthas predictions for 2005 which are common at this time of year.

Some of the highlights from the piece are:-

"The rise of broadband will lead to internet devices that can do a limited range of things (such as internet radio, or a barcode reader that can "Googlefridge" a recipe from whatever objects you scan past it)."

"3G phones will start to sell big, but video calls won't until screens get a lot bigger. Viral film clips for phones will be a huge hit, but sent by Bluetooth rather than expensive video messaging."

"Really good text-to-speech and speech-to-text programs will emerge, using the power of the fastest chips. You'll get e-mail read out on your phone, voice-mail turned into e-mails and be able to interact via Bluetooth headsets with your machine from a distance."

"Go wireless. With broadband, get a wireless router that sits between you and the link: it's harder to hack and it's easier to move the computer around. But ensure you password-protect your network and, if possible, the router."

I agree with a lot of what Charles Arthur has written, I already am a big user of Bluetooth, Broadband and VoIP. What would I add? In a similar vane to the text-to-speech comment I would say that we can look forward to more Anoto based solutions which ofer script-to-text using bluetooth and OCR. It has proved a hit with some police forces and hospitals who have had issues with training workers to use tablet pcs and keyboards.

Be interesting to see how the predictions look in 12 months time in terms of accuracy.

Now mobile phone masts can be buyilt right next to schools.

The Independent reports that Minsters give into legal ruling that health concerns should not prevent rapid riase in the number of transmitters.

Now working in the Mobile Industry I have to say that I have some interest in this. The first this that caused concern was a few months ago when the CTO of one of the UK's networks said that, he would not allow a transmitter to be built near his home or child's school.

Last week the same paper reported that some 8,000 new masts are to be erected around Britain over the next three years as the 3G system expands. Now having paid a very large sum to the Government for just such a service why should anyone be surprised that the Networks can build without formal planning permission?

If I had spent £23 billion then I would expect a little help from the guys who took my money to help me get a return on my investment. My only advice is make friends with someone who works in a senior position for one of the Networks and if you can afford it send your children to the same school as them.

Phone booths resurrected

The Wall Street Journal has a great feature on how having ripped out eight million plus phone boxes they are making a return. This time without the phone!

Now some restaurants, libraries and other businesses are slowly bringing back phone booths. The interesting snipit is that "the quest for privacy drive 98% of Americans to go to another room or outside when talking on a cell phone. Some retreat to a toilet to make calls; "few things are more irritating than having to listen to the sound of toilets flushing during an important conversation" says Sprint's wireless-phone-etiquette spokesperson.

As well as custom designed booths from Finish furniture designers costing $thousands the old fashioned cast iron red British phone booth is popular.

My only concern is that here in London the restaurant owner is likely to place such booths next to the toilet door just where we get no coverage and so we are going to have to still put up the lout who shouts on his phone when you are enjoying a meal.

Broadband wireless goes head-to-head with 3G

vnunet has yet another piece questioning 3G following a report from Analysys. What we have is someone commenting on work by another about WiMAX replacing 3G.

Now what I have a problem with is the fact that WiMAX is not likely to be available for at least another two years, even T-Mobile will have built a 3G voice network by then!

NTT DoCoMo are at present developing 4G technologies that DO use broadband wireless to improve data speeds and network coverage, nowever these are not for voice they are for value added services. Whilst I do believe in the validity of some claims for VoIP at the enterprise and techie need of the market I feel that we are a long way off mass market adoption. This being the case just how do you think you Granny is going to make a call over a broadband network?

Looking at a number of recent VoIP implementations all I can say is that a Chief Executive is happy to be without his email for a few hours or days each month but he is very upset if his phone does not work! This being the case I just dont think that we are very close to seeing the roll out of mobile voip.

Handicapping Social Networking Business Models

Stowe Boyd wrote back in March an interesting piece on Social Networking on the darwin website. Now I have been using social networks all my working life. The last few years has seen a number of these networks become on line as well as offline groups.

Whilst helping to run Digital People it became obvious that with people becoming more time poor there needed to be somethinbg that allowed people to connect when they were ready rather than just turn up for beer and friendship.

Over the years I have attended events run by such diverse groups as Company of Friends, Ecademy, Ryze, European Technology Forum, TEN and MIT Club of Great Britain. I agree that the issue is "who's paying and who's invited?" Without such knowledge now am I to know if my membership of the network is worthwhile or just another marketing pitch.

When Ecademy went online it became an interesting place, then as it grew an could no longer fund itself via corporate sponsorship it changed to a model that was chargeable but still allowed basic members to interact with the community. Now with falling renewals the owners have decided that Power layers with those that pay and the more you pay the more power you have! Thus in doing so the Management have removed all content that does not fit with their own views and repeat offenders are asked to leave the community.

LinkedIn has been a very good tool for my business over the last year, allowing me to build bridges with organisations I have lost contact with. However the cost is that I find myself in the middle of a number of chains from people I have no understanding of seeking to do business with contacts who I am sure would not like to be snowed under with such requests. The network is more business than social and so is excellent in joining up people but it does not have an area where you can enter into a discussion and thus "find" new connections based on the strenght of your intellect and experience.

I guess that what is needed is to join a few of these and play an active part, if you find them useful then pay something towards the cost of running the service. This payment does not have to be cash it could be content or services!

However whatever it is that you decide to do do not stand and watch interact.

Remembering we all need downtime

Tony Hallet writes an interesting feature on how "Advances in mobile and wireless technology can please employers by leading to improved productivity but are too many staff unwisely working longer hours, the victims of 'connectivity creep?"

This is something that has concerned me for the last few months, as someone who runs a small consultancy I am aware that clients buy into what we do not just because of price bvut also because of speed of responce. People work for me rather than large firms because I do not want them to be in the office all day and night. However I am coming across a number of intelligent people who have allowed themselves to be dictated to by the firms email system via their Blackberry.

I do not think that a smart device is a smart idea! Giving somebody something that allows them to work anyplace anytime is not a responsible act. What is needed is for everyone to respect the time and space of those who the interact with. The most effective people I work with use technology as a tool rather than always reply to every email, text message, voicemail as soon as they receive them evem when it annoys me that it is so.

I would be interested to see if its a cultural thing, with Italians and French executives not "suffering" the same connection issues as their English and American co-workers.

Accenture tells us that we are humans to

Lucy Kellaway in the FT today reveals the latest dvd from accenture. She like me asks just why have they decided to release short storries on ten employees to the entire company?

The UK Managing Director says that it helps build teams if they understand each other. The PR Speak is "These short stories were wonderful, and to know they are about people we work with made that much more enjoyable."

Perhaps with accenture needing to once again restock on new staff they are trying to show that the company is diverse and does understand work life balance. If so I am not sure if it will help attract experience staff to move to accenture. In the UK I am confident that it would be a turn off with people affraid that they would be asked to feature in the next video if they revealed any personal issue. (Now if I were cynical I could say that such shorts would reduce the calls to personnel asking for personal time.)

From the spoken to the written word

FT.com has a feature on Spinvox about how voicemail may be at an end with the launch of technology that turns speach to text. The technology does not delete the original voicemail and so if the conversion to text is not always accurate you can finally listen to the message.

This is the Unified Messaging as outlined by Orange's Futurology team some five years ago. They also told of "speaking emails" where your inbox would be delivered to subscribers by the silkie voice Wildfire Siren as seen on the Annova website. Oh happy memories of rosie futures from the boom times.

The problem is that I look at my phone and see that I have a number of missed calls from those who would not leave voicemail. The other problem is do I wish to pay for the delivery of voicespam from my network and others who want to tell me of "excellent new offers". How can I profile my service so that only those on a set list are able to have voicemail converted to text and all others are left for me to access when I am ready?

It is services such as this that networks can lock in users, but the issue has to be how much will I pay for such a service? If I am already on a higher user tarrif and a committed user is it not better to give the service away free as part of my service knowing that it will lift the number of minutes I use and voice is the most profitable service for my network.

Telephones should be used for talking

The FT says that telephones are for talking and all the other flashy data services are just that. It is also something that the networks have acknowledged in as much as they are tarrifing third generation services lower than those of existing ones in an effort to speed the upgrade.

I a discussion last night about wireless we agreed that voice is the one service that you have to provide on a allways on basis. A chief executive can cope without access to his email or his corporate accounting systems he cannot function without a telephone. The other issue about complex communication systems is that they are an ecology that is interdependent so that when a network plugs in a new component they are quite likey to knock out a number of services because they do not understand cause and effect. This is why we have had to wait so long for the launch of 3G.

As someone who has spent all his working life in wireless telecoms I can remember back to the point almost 20 years ago when Racal and BT launched mobile phones and the evolution seen until today we have come to a point when advance sees us having to regress in order to progress rather than Darwinian evolution.

I for one am looking forward to the next few months as the Networks balance the two systems and discover what the consumer will pay for as an individual and as a business.

Mobile Operators hunt for content to make 3G work

The International Herald Tribune wrote a good feature on just what 3G looks like from an America's point of view. The Feature has a piece on can Mobile operators become media players? which acts as a good conter piece that allows us to see the cons of launching 3G.

Whilst in The Sunday Times has a road test of Vodafone's 3G service in which the reviewer talks about his experience with the Sony Ericsson V800 handset which he likes compared to his first experience. The interesting thing is that he does not point out that in order to get consumers to switch Vodafone are offering a 20% discount on its current tarrif. When signing up for 500 minutes you get it coists £40 per month on the 3G plan and £50 on the 2G plan, plus you get some free downloads so that you can experience just what the improvements are when using 3G.

As for me well I am giving up on T-Mobile over the next few weeks and moving over to Orange so that I can have a 3G experience in terms of voice.

DE

Is T-Mobile playing with your brain

BBC Five Live report has had access to BBC 3's analysis of UMTS masts. The key discovery is that T-Mobile used the clause in its current mast contracts to install the new technology without consultation.

Last week over cocktails another Network executive was talking about how they have a group of unhappy former employees who are trying to tell all about 3G mast deployment. They are confident that teh story will be a non-starter because the stakeholders do not want to publish the fact that they are broadcasting higher level microwaves.

Perhaps if we become neoconservatives and are born again the churches will not have to seek income by renting out tower sites in the belfry? Or perhaps if we are to become born again we should be happy that those seeking religion will benefit from a few rays!

Home phones face uncertain future

BBC NEWS Technology is running a report on the latrest research from Nokia on mobile phones replacing fixed residential lines. The only time that people are using their Home phone is for when they intend to have a longer call, with mobiles used for shorter calls.

Whilst this is interesting what is more so is the fact that last nights newsnight (also on the BBC) had a short feature on VoIP with the head of BT Retail as well as the Founder of Skype explaining how very soon all calls would be vertually free thanks to new technology. Whilst a very basic primer from there Business Correspondent it was a usefull wake-up call for all those middle class new kunkies who cannot sleep on a Friday night!

Having worked with VoIP as my telephone service for the last 18 months I do see that potentially we could all become users but I don't see the fast take-up spoken of by BT. I think that VoIP could become the same replacement of traditional communications that the FAX was in relation to the Stamp. Some will use it but many others are happy with the current system and thus unlikely to change just for the sake of a few pennies saved on calls.

Just a thought but somehow I think that we are not going to see the brave new world for quite sometime, just look at the speed that 3G has been started for more evidence.

Heathcare Standards

For the last two years my sister has been fighting with a brain tummor. For most of this year she has been undergoing chemotherapy in an attempt to finish off the part of the tummor that was unable to be cut out.

Over the Summer she did well but as the seasons turned so has her health. At the end of September she was notified that they intended to stop paying sick pay and she was going to be pensioned off. Now what this means is that she will be paid a lower sum than the half salary she is on and when she is terminal no need to pay her husband death benefit. Now in the private sector that is fine you have a free market, BUT my sister is a civil servant! As such she has always worked for the government, first as a nurse and now as an administrator in the prision service. The Civil Service had decided that her pension fund was not funded and so she has been forced to make additional payments for the last five years since returning to work.

This weekend my sister has been admitted into hospital with an infection that has caused here to feel unwell. As its the weekend the usual hospital does not have a bed available and so she has been put up in the local hospital on a medical ward. This means that rather than treatment by specialists she is being looked after nurses who have little understanding of her treatment. My brother in law is with my sister as much as possible as a contractor that means no pay! More importantly as my sister at present cannot speak, the tummor is growing on her frontal lobe, it is her husband and daughters who can help her. I spent this afternoon with them today and I although angre that hospitals cannot cope thanks to cronic underinvestment but also saw what a real family and love is all about.

And do you know what it is not about money, its about time and space, must go time to put my youngest to bed with a story and hot chocolate.

You Can't always get what you want

Andy Gill'sreview of RL Burnside's latest album made me interested in finding out more. So I went off to HMV locally to see if they had it in stock, no joy. The assistant asked if I wanted to order the album and then had to appologise because her system would not allow her to do so. The same for Virgin, WHSmiths and Borders.

This also made me think as all these stores had a TOP 20 Albums listed but none were the same. The Assistant at WHSmith told me that it was not the official list but rather an internal one...perhaps thats why they are not selling much at present. The good news is that I have been able to buy the album online and the disk is in transit because Mr Burnside you see is not mainstream and as he is in his 80's The Music Download sites don't have his music available. Here is the thing FAT POSSUM has been working hard to promote this Album and so they have got the reviews to get not just me asking to buy it; but the stores have decided that its too much of a risk to stock.

Thank good for the internet shop which along with Google allowed me to trackdown what I wanted.

Could BT's "Broadband Voice" service be a winner

Phones without borders shouts Michael Pollitt in The Independent. In a well written feature on BTs consumer play for VOIP he has not just bought the PR hype for the service but he has done some foot work in terms of just how and why you might wish to use your broadband line as a second telephone line.

My only issue is that he does not undertake any real analysis of just who may use the service and how that may effect the fortunes of not just BT but its rivals. Convergence is the watch word of all those at present in the telecoms space or the fact that the time taken to deploy such a service will make the roll out of cable television seam rapid. My opinion is that the real sticking point is that most are lazy when it comes to changing providers and cost today is not much of an issue thanks to price plans such as BT Together.

Wireless Security - Mobile Security: One Size Does Not Fit All

Mark Long has writen an interesting feature over at Wireless Newsfactor about the problems of security.

At present wireless devices are limited on there bandwidth unless they use the battery draining WiFi. Thus the security needed to protect data is limited to password protect, and lets face it thats not great as the number of passwords anyone has is limited to their ability to remember them.

You cannot use a VPN as that congests the already limited bandwidth faster than a month of Supersizing at McDonalds!

How ever as we become more mobile we need to become more security aware, the same thing happens with money when we leave our house. What is needed is not more smart devices just smart users. I remember a conversation a few years ago with a headhunter who was not overly concerned about the fact that he had left his Palm in the back of a taxi on the way over to my office. It was only after I asked if any of the documents relating to the assignment he was conducting for me were on the device that he became concerned and even then he said they were of little use to onthers. Needless to say he and I have not done business since.

When I first started using mobiles thay had a pin number, that was needed to un-lock the handset so that you could make calls. As more people got mobiles in an effort to make it easier for users we no longer see pin numbers. Hence when a phone is lost the lucky finder can read all you messages and copy your numbers, but the network can disable the sim so that no calls are made from it!

What is the best way forward for security? Get smarter users with dummer devices!

Let me take you by the hand

Just been talking to one of those I met at the Symbian exhibition earlier this week who thanked me for helping navigate the show.

They said that in most of the shows they attended time is short and what is needed is someone who can scout the exhibits and arrange meetings with people who understand the product they are premoting rather than hijacked by hospitality girls harvesting business cards and handing out freebees. Is this not the function of the event organisor?

If you want me to give up time in my busy diary don't you have to facilitate a great experience. The fall in the market has ment that the bloated show has ended (only downside is that the level of goodies have fallen) and so it does not take too long to scout the site. Does it need better PR from the exhibitors to promote the features and benefits of their clients?

Would you be prepaired to pay for a show guide who walked you to your meetings and insured that you got face time with the relivant people on the stands?

Symbian Developer Event

Spent the afternoon at the Symbian Event and this year saw some real signs that Mobile Developers are able to launch without the Network Owners.

One of those that impressed is Cognima and if you view the Blog on their site my smiling face is shown. Cognima offer a solution that makes MMS messages very easy to load/send without pushing too many buttons. After catching up with them I bumped into a senior exec from one of the Networks who said that they needed something to make Picture Messaging easier. So guess who I introduced?

Nokia and Sony Ericsson had more people around them than others showing off just what can be done with their new handsets,

Giving cellular the blues

|BT Pulls the plug on Bluephone cannot be good news for companies like Norwood Systems who have spent the last five years pushing Bluetooth for in building substition of GSM. I am sure that with those involved in the Alliance will make Convergence work. But I think that 21st Century Networks will take a long time to work rather than the rapid delivery that BT hopes will come about. The problem is the legacy network needs to be supported and serviced and unlike television BT has not said that they will switch off the non-IP telephony. Without the forced adoption of new technology by customers then the arrival of converged telephony is going to be a long time coming.

I'm not as scarry as it looks